2026 Senate forecastThe Upper Chamber

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AK · Senate 2026 · Updated Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET

Alaska

Rated Lean R

Dan Sullivan wins this seat in 74 in 100 simulations. Call it favored, but far from certain.

  • Portrait of Dan SullivanDan SullivanRIncumbent74 in 100
  • Portrait of Mary PeltolaMary PeltolaD26 in 100

Over time

How the forecast has moved

0255075100AprJulOctJan ’26AprJulD 26 in 100R 74 in 100Aug 27, 2026
Chance in 100 the seat goes to each side: blue for the Democratic caucus, red for the Republicans · one point per day · hover or tap to read the lines

The margin

How close it lands

Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.

EvenR +5.5
← Dan Sullivan aheadMary Peltola ahead →
Where the simulated margins land · marker at the average margin

Under the hood

What's driving the number

The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.

  • Partisan leanR +12.4
  • IncumbencyR +2.5
  • National environmentD +5.1
  • FundraisingD +0.3
  • Fundamentals sayR +9.5
  • The polls sayD +3.0
  • Blended forecast marginR +5.6

The blend puts 31 percent of its weight on the polls and 69 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.

The markets

What the betting markets say

Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Dan Sullivan wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.

  • Dan Sullivan winsThis forecast74 in 100
  • Dan Sullivan winsKalshi39 in 100
  • Dan Sullivan winsPolymarket39 in 100

Market prices as of Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET

The evidence

The polls, as the model sees them

Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.

PollDatesSampleD–RMarginHouse adj.Weight
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 2–51,371 LV51–49D +2.0+0.144%
Data for Progress (D)Jul 28–Aug 4567 LV47–41D +6.0+1.931%
Data for Progress (D)Jul 28–Aug 4575 LV50–45D +5.0+1.916%
Data for Progress (D)Jul 28–Aug 4605 LV53–47D +6.0+1.98%
New York Times / Siena UniversityJun 15–29593 LV45–47R +2.0—1%
Alaska Survey ResearchJun 4–71,393 LV49–44D +5.0+0.1<1%
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 14–171,401 LV48–44D +4.0+0.1<1%
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16–191,946 LV50–44D +6.0+0.1<1%
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19–221,590 LV52–48D +4.0+0.1<1%
Public Policy Polling (D)Jan 16–17611 V49–47D +2.0+0.4<1%
Alaska Survey ResearchJan 8–111,988 LV48–46D +2.0+0.10%
Data for Progress (D)Oct 17–23823 LV46–45D +1.0+1.90%
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 10–151,708 LV48–46D +2.0+0.10%
Alaska Survey ResearchJul 29–Aug 11,623 LV42–47R +5.0+0.10%
Data for Progress (D)Jul 21–27678 LV45–46R +1.0+1.90%
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 21–251,261 LV44–41D +3.0+0.10%

How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.