AK · Senate 2026 · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET

Alaska

Rated Toss-up

Dan Sullivan wins this seat in 56 in 100 simulations. Call it could easily go either way.

Dan SullivanRIncumbent56 in 100
Mary PeltolaD44 in 100

The race

What this race is about

The numbers on this page come from the model. This section doesn't. It's a short briefing on the contest itself: who is running, what they are arguing about, and where each side's strength lies.

The matchup

Mary Peltola, the former House member who would be the first Alaska Native senator, is challenging two-term incumbent Dan Sullivan. In the August 18 top-four primary she led him 48 to 43. Both advanced, along with a second, unrelated Dan Sullivan, a retired teacher whose 2 percent Republicans call a deliberate ballot-confusion play. November is decided by ranked-choice voting.

The issues

Fish, before anything else. Peltola runs on banning factory trawling and cutting salmon bycatch under the slogan Fish, Family, Freedom. Sullivan answers with his record of pulling federal dollars north, the military buildup, and his ban on Russian and Chinese trawl-caught imports. Cost of living and resource development fill out the race, and the second Dan Sullivan is a running story all by itself.

Who has the edge, and where

Final-round ranked-choice polling puts Peltola narrowly ahead, 53-47 in one August survey and 51-49 in another. She has out-raised Sullivan two to one but spent most of it, leaving him the cash edge for the fall. Ranked-choice transfers have been her friend before: she won statewide in 2022 by consolidating Democrats, Alaska Natives, and moderate second choices.

The environment

Alaska leans Republican, which makes a challenger out-polling an incumbent in an open primary a national story. Democrats count this seat in their narrow path to a majority, and the primary result is the best evidence yet that the path exists.

Written by hand, not by the model. As of August 27, 2026.

Over time

How the forecast has moved

Chance in 100 the seat goes to each side: blue for the Democratic caucus, red for the Republicans · one point per day · hover or tap to read the lines

The margin

How close it lands

Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.

← Dan Sullivan aheadMary Peltola ahead →

Where the simulated margins land · marker at the average margin

Under the hood

What's driving the number

The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.

Partisan leanR +12.4
IncumbencyR +2.5
National environmentD +4.7
FundraisingD +0.6

Fundamentals sayR +9.6
The polls sayD +1.6
Blended forecast marginR +1.1

The blend puts 76 percent of its weight on the polls and 24 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.

The field

How other forecasters see this race

Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.

Dan Sullivan winsThis forecast56 in 100
Dan Sullivan winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2751 in 100

No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.

The markets

What the betting markets say

Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Dan Sullivan wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.

Dan Sullivan winsThis forecast56 in 100
Dan Sullivan winsKalshi27 in 100
Dan Sullivan winsPolymarket26 in 100

Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET

The evidence

The polls, as the model sees them

Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.

Poll	Dates	Sample	D–R	Margin	House adj.	Weight
Data for Progress (D)	Oct 8–16	660 LV	50–50	Even	+1.6	21%
Data for Progress (D)	Oct 8–16	671 LV	51–49	D +2.0	+1.6	11%
Data for Progress (D)	Oct 8–16	675 LV	49–46	D +3.0	+1.6	5%
Data for Progress (D)	Oct 8–16	694 LV	47–44	D +3.0	+1.6	3%
Public Policy Polling (D)	Oct 14–15	578 RV	48–47	D +1.0	+0.2	12%
InsiderAdvantage (R)	Oct 9–10	1,200 LV	48–43	D +5.0	−0.4	18%
Alaska Survey Research	Oct 1–3	1,512 LV	47–45	D +2.0	+0.2	12%
New York Times / Siena University	Sep 24–Oct 1	504 LV	50–43	D +7.0	—	4%
Quantus Insights (R)	Sep 28–30	758 LV	50–50	Even	−0.4	5%
Trafalgar Group (R)	Sep 22–24	1,079 LV	46–47	R +1.0	−1.7	2%
co/efficient (R)	Sep 14–17	799 LV	46–49	R +3.0	−1.0	2%
Rasmussen Reports (R)	Sep 13–14	1,188 LV	39–39	Even	−0.6	2%
Alaska Survey Research	Sep 10–12	1,352 LV	48–44	D +4.0	+0.2	1%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)	Sep 8–11	800 LV	46–41	D +5.0	—	1%
Alaska Survey Research	Aug 20–23	1,495 LV	51–49	D +2.0	+0.2	<1%
Alaska Survey Research	Aug 2–5	1,371 LV	51–49	D +2.0	+0.2	<1%
Data for Progress (D)	Jul 28–Aug 4	578 LV	52–48	D +4.0	+1.6	<1%
Data for Progress (D)	Jul 28–Aug 4	567 LV	53–47	D +6.0	+1.6	<1%
Data for Progress (D)	Jul 28–Aug 4	575 LV	52–48	D +4.0	+1.6	<1%
Data for Progress (D)	Jul 28–Aug 4	605 LV	45–41	D +4.0	+1.6	<1%
New York Times / Siena University	Jun 15–29	593 LV	45–47	R +2.0	—	<1%
Alaska Survey Research	Jun 4–7	1,393 LV	49–44	D +5.0	+0.2	<1%
Alaska Survey Research	May 14–17	1,401 LV	48–44	D +4.0	+0.2	<1%
Alaska Survey Research	Apr 16–19	1,946 LV	50–44	D +6.0	+0.2	<1%
Alaska Survey Research	Mar 19–22	951 LV	52–48	D +4.0	+0.2	0%
Alaska Survey Research	Mar 19–22	959 LV	50–44	D +6.0	+0.2	0%
Alaska Survey Research	Mar 19–22	961 LV	49–44	D +5.0	+0.2	0%
Alaska Survey Research	Mar 19–22	1,590 LV	49–44	D +5.0	+0.2	0%
Public Policy Polling (D)	Jan 16–17	611 V	49–47	D +2.0	+0.2	0%
Alaska Survey Research	Jan 8–11	1,988 LV	48–46	D +2.0	+0.2	0%
Data for Progress (D)	Oct 17–23	823 LV	46–45	D +1.0	+1.6	0%
Alaska Survey Research	Oct 10–15	1,708 LV	48–46	D +2.0	+0.2	0%
Alaska Survey Research	Jul 29–Aug 1	1,623 LV	42–47	R +5.0	+0.2	0%
Data for Progress (D)	Jul 21–27	678 LV	45–46	R +1.0	+1.6	0%
Alaska Survey Research	Apr 21–25	1,261 LV	44–41	D +3.0	+0.2	0%

How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.