All 35 races

Race by race

Every seat on the ballot, closest first. Each page carries the win probability over time, the polls with the model's weights, and what the fundamentals say.

• Ohio (special)SpecialToss-upHusted 56 in 100
• TexasLean RPaxton 60 in 100
• MichiganLean DEl-Sayed 63 in 100
• AlaskaLean RSullivan 74 in 100
• North CarolinaLean DCooper 77 in 100
• New HampshireLean DPappas 77 in 100
• NebraskaLean RRicketts 77 in 100
• IowaLean RHinson 78 in 100
• Florida (special)SpecialLikely RMoody 81 in 100
• MaineLikely DJackson 81 in 100
• GeorgiaLikely DOssoff 81 in 100
• MinnesotaLikely DFlanagan 85 in 100
• South CarolinaLikely RGraham 88 in 100
• KansasLikely RMarshall 91 in 100
• South DakotaLikely RRounds 92 in 100
• VirginiaSolid DWarner 95 in 100
• New MexicoSolid DLuján 96 in 100
• LouisianaSolid RLetlow 96 in 100
• MontanaSolid RAlme 97 in 100
• New JerseySolid DBooker 97 in 100
• IllinoisSolid DStratton 97 in 100
• IdahoSolid RRisch 98 in 100
• MississippiSolid RHyde-Smith 98 in 100
• ColoradoSolid DHickenlooper 99 in 100
• OregonSolid DMerkley 99 in 100
• ArkansasSolid RCotton 99 in 100
• Rhode IslandSolid DReed >99 in 100
• DelawareSolid DCoons >99 in 100
• KentuckySolid RBarr >99 in 100
• AlabamaSolid RMoore >99 in 100
• TennesseeSolid RHagerty >99 in 100
• OklahomaSolid RHern >99 in 100
• MassachusettsSolid DMarkey >99 in 100
• WyomingSolid RHageman >99 in 100
• West VirginiaSolid RCapito 100 in 100