All 35 races

Race by race

Every seat on the ballot, closest first. Each page carries the win probability over time, the polls with the model's weights, and what the fundamentals say.

• IowaToss-upHinson 52 in 100
• AlaskaToss-upSullivan 56 in 100
• NebraskaLean RRicketts 61 in 100
• TexasLean DTalarico 62 in 100
• KansasLean RMarshall 64 in 100
• Ohio (special)SpecialLean DBrown 65 in 100
• MaineLean DJackson 67 in 100
• South CarolinaLean RGraham 68 in 100
• MichiganLean DEl-Sayed 70 in 100
• MinnesotaLikely DFlanagan 84 in 100
• New HampshireLikely DPappas 86 in 100
• Florida (special)SpecialLikely RMoody 86 in 100
• GeorgiaLikely DOssoff 91 in 100
• North CarolinaLikely DCooper 91 in 100
• MississippiLikely RHyde-Smith 93 in 100
• IdahoLikely RRisch 94 in 100
• VirginiaLikely DWarner 95 in 100
• LouisianaSolid RLetlow 96 in 100
• New JerseySolid DBooker 96 in 100
• South DakotaSolid RRounds 97 in 100
• MontanaSolid RAlme 97 in 100
• IllinoisSolid DStratton 97 in 100
• New MexicoSolid DLuján 97 in 100
• ColoradoSolid DHickenlooper 98 in 100
• OregonSolid DMerkley 99 in 100
• DelawareSolid DCoons >99 in 100
• ArkansasSolid RCotton >99 in 100
• KentuckySolid RBarr >99 in 100
• TennesseeSolid RHagerty >99 in 100
• AlabamaSolid RMoore >99 in 100
• OklahomaSolid RHern >99 in 100
• Rhode IslandSolid DReed >99 in 100
• MassachusettsSolid DMarkey >99 in 100
• West VirginiaSolid RCapito 100 in 100
• WyomingSolid RHageman 100 in 100