2026 Senate forecastThe Upper Chamber

35 seats up · Election day Nov 3, 2026 · 68 days out

Who holds the Senate?

Every six hours, this model simulates the 2026 midterms ten thousand times from public polls and fundamentals. Every race is on the map below; per-race pages are on their way.

Republicans hold Senate control · Updated Aug 27, 2026, 12:43 a.m. ET

62in 100

could easily go either way

Each square is one of 100 evenly weighted futures. In 38 of them Democrats control the chamber; in the other 62 Republicans hold it. A forecast like this is wrong sometimes by design — what it promises is that its 38s come true about 38 percent of the time.

The range of outcomes

How many seats each side ends up with

The most common single outcome is a chamber with 49 seats caucusing with Democrats — it happens in 14 of 100 simulations. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; at 50-50 the Republican vice president breaks the tie.

5101539 Democratic-caucus seats — <1 in 100 simulations40 Democratic-caucus seats — <1 in 100 simulations41 Democratic-caucus seats — <1 in 100 simulations42 Democratic-caucus seats — <1 in 100 simulations43 Democratic-caucus seats — 1 in 100 simulations44 Democratic-caucus seats — 2 in 100 simulations45 Democratic-caucus seats — 4 in 100 simulations46 Democratic-caucus seats — 6 in 100 simulations47 Democratic-caucus seats — 10 in 100 simulations48 Democratic-caucus seats — 12 in 100 simulations49 Democratic-caucus seats — 14 in 100 simulations50 Democratic-caucus seats — 13 in 100 simulations51 Democratic-caucus seats — 12 in 100 simulations52 Democratic-caucus seats — 10 in 100 simulations53 Democratic-caucus seats — 7 in 100 simulations54 Democratic-caucus seats — 4 in 100 simulations55 Democratic-caucus seats — 2 in 100 simulations56 Democratic-caucus seats — 1 in 100 simulations57 Democratic-caucus seats — 1 in 100 simulations58 Democratic-caucus seats — <1 in 100 simulations59 Democratic-caucus seats — <1 in 100 simulations60 Democratic-caucus seats — <1 in 100 simulations61 Democratic-caucus seats — 0 in 100 simulations62 Democratic-caucus seats — <1 in 100 simulations51 seats — Democratic majority4045505560

Democratic-caucus seats after election day · chance in 100 simulations · latest run of 10,000

The battleground

All 35 races, state by state

Colors follow the model's rating for each seat. Tap or click a state — or tab to it — for the candidates, the current number, and how it has moved. The equal-states view gives every race the same size, so small states stay easy to hit.

NHMARINJDE
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • No 2026 race

What changed

Run over run

Every published run is archived. When the forecast moves — the chamber odds shift, a rating flips, new polls land — it's noted in plain language.

Latest movement · Aug 27, 2026, 12:43 a.m. ET

RunDemocratic controlChange
Aug 27, 2026, 12:43 a.m. ET38 in 100no change
Aug 26, 2026, 8:01 p.m. ET38 in 100no change
Aug 26, 2026, 2:14 p.m. ET38 in 100no change
Aug 26, 2026, 2:03 p.m. ET38 in 100−1
Aug 26, 2026, 11:15 a.m. ET39 in 100no change
Aug 26, 2026, 10:33 a.m. ET39 in 100no change

Full archive of what changed →