FL · Special election · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
Florida (special)
Rated Likely R
Ashley Moody wins this seat in 86 in 100 simulations. Call it clearly favored.
Ashley MoodyRIncumbent86 in 100
Angie NixonD14 in 100
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanR +10.7
- IncumbencyR +1.0
- National environmentD +4.7
- FundraisingR +0.2
- Fundamentals sayR +7.2
- The polls sayR +7.3
- Blended forecast marginR +7.3
The blend puts 90 percent of its weight on the polls and 10 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The field
How other forecasters see this race
Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.
- Ashley Moody winsThis forecast86 in 100
- Ashley Moody winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2784 in 100
No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Ashley Moody wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Ashley Moody winsThis forecast86 in 100
- Ashley Moody winsKalshi90 in 100
- Ashley Moody winsPolymarket91 in 100
Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | Oct 17–27 | 400 LV | 47–53 | R +6.0 | +0.1 | 7% |
| Echelon Insights (R) | Oct 16–23 | 515 LV | 43–51 | R +8.0 | +0.9 | 12% |
| RedBox Research (D) | Oct 20–23 | 4,832 LV | 43–50 | R +7.0 | −0.1 | 23% |
| co/efficient (R) | Oct 18–20 | 1,014 LV | 40–48 | R +8.0 | −1.0 | 7% |
| University of North Florida | Oct 12–19 | 1,471 LV | 45–49 | R +4.0 | +0.2 | 9% |
| Univision / YouGov | Oct 2–15 | 825 RV | 42–51 | R +9.0 | +0.1 | 4% |
| ActiVote | Sep 27–Oct 15 | 400 LV | 47–53 | R +6.0 | +0.1 | 1% |
| MDW Communications | Oct 4–10 | 2,351 LV | 42–48 | R +6.0 | — | 6% |
| Stetson University | Oct 1–9 | 716 LV | 41–52 | R +11.0 | −0.1 | 3% |
| St. Pete Polls | Oct 5–7 | 836 LV | 45–47 | R +2.0 | +0.9 | 5% |
| YouGov | Sep 28–Oct 5 | 3,813 LV | 44–49 | R +5.0 | +1.5 | 10% |
| Targoz Market Research | Sep 28–Oct 4 | 1,171 RV | 38–50 | R +12.0 | +0.6 | 3% |
| Targoz Market Research | Sep 28–Oct 4 | 847 LV | 42–52 | R +10.0 | +0.6 | 1% |
| James Madison Institute | Sep 28–Oct 4 | 1,171 LV | 42–52 | R +10.0 | −0.1 | 3% |
| Mason-Dixon | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 625 LV | 40–50 | R +10.0 | −0.1 | 2% |
| Change Research (D) | Sep 25–27 | 1,063 LV | 47–48 | R +1.0 | +0.4 | 2% |
| Stetson University | Sep 14–21 | 830 LV | 40–51 | R +11.0 | −0.1 | <1% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | Sep 20–21 | 600 LV | 42–49 | R +7.0 | −0.4 | 1% |
| St. Pete Polls | Sep 15–17 | 913 LV | 45–45 | Even | +0.9 | <1% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | Sep 8–10 | 733 LV | 43–50 | R +7.0 | −0.4 | <1% |
| Change Research (D) | Sep 7–9 | 1,107 LV | 47–47 | Even | +0.4 | <1% |
| University of North Florida | Jul 8–17 | 848 LV | 42–50 | R +8.0 | +0.2 | <1% |
| Stetson University | Mar 15–Apr 13 | 848 LV | 38–51 | R +13.0 | −0.1 | <1% |
| Emerson College | Mar 29–31 | 1,125 LV | 36–47 | R +11.0 | +0.9 | <1% |
| University of North Florida | Feb 21–Mar 2 | 786 LV | 38–46 | R +8.0 | +0.2 | 0% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.