GA · Senate 2026 · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
Georgia
Rated Likely D
Jon Ossoff wins this seat in 91 in 100 simulations. Call it clearly favored.
A note on the calendar: in 9 in 100 simulations no candidate clears 50 percent on November 3, and the seat is decided in a January runoff instead. The probabilities here already include those runoffs.
Jon OssoffDIncumbent91 in 100
Mike CollinsR9 in 100
The race
What this race is about
The numbers on this page come from the model. This section doesn't. It's a short briefing on the contest itself: who is running, what they are arguing about, and where each side's strength lies.
The matchup
Sen. Jon Ossoff, the first Democrat defending a seat in a state Trump carried in 2024, drew no primary opponent. The Republican field lost its strongest option early when Gov. Brian Kemp declined to run. Rep. Mike Collins, a trucking company owner with a combative online style, led the May primary, then beat former football coach Derek Dooley about 55 to 45 in the June 16 runoff. Trump endorsed Collins late; Kemp had backed Dooley. Georgia requires a majority in November, so this race can go to a runoff too.
The issues
Prices are the top concern in polling here as everywhere. Ossoff's sharpest attack is health care: Collins voted against extending the enhanced ACA subsidies, which Ossoff casts as a premium hike for more than a million Georgians. Tariffs get similar treatment. Collins has his own problems, including a public condemnation from dozens of Black state lawmakers over his son-in-law's extremist online content.
Who has the edge, and where
Ossoff leads every major public poll, by as much as 13 points in one August survey. He is the cycle's top Senate fundraiser, past $80 million, with a deep small-dollar base. The enthusiasm gap is real: nearly half of Collins' own supporters say they are mainly voting against Ossoff rather than for their nominee. Forecaster ratings have moved steadily toward the Democrats since the runoff.
The environment
Ossoff entered the cycle as the most endangered Democratic incumbent in the country. A friendly national environment, Kemp's absence, and a bruising Trump-versus-Kemp proxy fight in the primary have flipped that script, at least for now.
Written by hand, not by the model. As of August 27, 2026.
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanR +1.6
- IncumbencyD +2.5
- National environmentD +4.7
- FundraisingD +1.5
- Fundamentals sayD +7.1
- The polls sayD +9.9
- Blended forecast marginD +9.4
The blend puts 83 percent of its weight on the polls and 17 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The field
How other forecasters see this race
Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.
- Jon Ossoff winsThis forecast91 in 100
- Jon Ossoff winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2795 in 100
No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Jon Ossoff wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Jon Ossoff winsThis forecast91 in 100
- Jon Ossoff winsKalshi95 in 100
- Jon Ossoff winsPolymarket96 in 100
Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights (R) | Oct 16–23 | 508 LV | 55–40 | D +15.0 | +0.9 | 21% |
| ActiVote | Oct 6–20 | 400 LV | 54–46 | D +8.0 | +0.1 | 7% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | Oct 15–17 | 755 LV | 54–46 | D +8.0 | −0.4 | 12% |
| Quantus Insights | Oct 15–17 | 755 LV | 52–45 | D +7.0 | −0.4 | 6% |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | Oct 7–15 | 1,000 LV | 48–40 | D +8.0 | — | 14% |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution | Oct 7–15 | 1,000 LV | 48–40 | D +8.0 | −0.1 | 10% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Oct 7–9 | 1,101 LV | 51–43 | D +8.0 | −1.7 | 4% |
| Trafalgar Group | Oct 7–9 | 1,101 LV | 51–43 | D +8.0 | −1.7 | 2% |
| Wedgewood Polls | Oct 2–3 | 600 LV | 55–45 | D +10.0 | +0.1 | 4% |
| Big Data Poll (R) | Sep 21–23 | 678 LV | 55–45 | D +10.0 | −0.3 | 2% |
| Big Data Poll (R) | Sep 21–23 | 721 RV | 51–40 | D +11.0 | −0.3 | <1% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | Sep 22–23 | 1,200 LV | 50–42 | D +8.0 | −0.4 | 4% |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 21–23 | 678 LV | 55–45 | D +10.0 | −0.3 | <1% |
| YouGov | Sep 15–18 | 3,071 LV | 51–43 | D +8.0 | +1.5 | 6% |
| YouGov | Sep 15–18 | 3,301 LV | 52–42 | D +10.0 | +1.5 | 3% |
| YouGov | Sep 15–18 | 3,416 RV | 51–41 | D +10.0 | +1.5 | 1% |
| YouGov | Sep 15–18 | 3,303 LV | 52–42 | D +10.0 | +1.5 | <1% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | Sep 14–16 | 645 LV | 49–45 | D +4.0 | −0.4 | <1% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | Sep 14 | 1,019 LV | 51–42 | D +9.0 | −0.6 | 2% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Sep 10–12 | 1,091 LV | 49–43 | D +6.0 | −1.7 | <1% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | Aug 16–17 | 800 LV | 50–43 | D +7.0 | −0.4 | <1% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | Jul 13–16 | 1,060 LV | 52–43 | D +9.0 | — | <1% |
| Wick | Jun 27–30 | 1,175 LV | 47–43 | D +4.0 | −0.1 | <1% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | Jun 23–27 | 1,002 RV | 56–43 | D +13.0 | +1.1 | <1% |
| Echelon Insights (R) | Apr 3–9 | 407 LV | 51–44 | D +7.0 | +0.9 | <1% |
| Emerson College | Feb 28–Mar 2 | 1,000 LV | 48–43 | D +5.0 | +0.9 | <1% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | Sep 9–12 | 624 RV | 38–38 | Even | −0.4 | 0% |
| TIPP Insights | Jul 28–Aug 1 | 2,956 RV | 45–44 | D +1.0 | −0.4 | 0% |
| Cygnal (R) | May 15–17 | 800 LV | 46–43 | D +3.0 | +1.5 | 0% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Apr 24–27 | 1,426 LV | 48–43 | D +5.0 | −1.7 | 0% |
| WPA Intelligence (R) | Jan 14–15 | 500 LV | 44–34 | D +10.0 | −0.5 | 0% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.