ME · Senate 2026 · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
Maine
Rated Lean D
Troy Jackson wins this seat in 67 in 100 simulations. Call it favored, but far from certain.
Troy JacksonD67 in 100
Susan CollinsRIncumbent33 in 100
The race
What this race is about
The numbers on this page come from the model. This section doesn't. It's a short briefing on the contest itself: who is running, what they are arguing about, and where each side's strength lies.
The matchup
Susan Collins, seeking a sixth term, against Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger from Allagash and former state Senate president. Jackson took the strangest road of any nominee this cycle. Oyster farmer Graham Platner crushed Gov. Janet Mills in the June primary, 72 to 19, after Mills suspended her campaign in April. Platner withdrew in July under serious accusations, and a state party convention picked Jackson on July 25. Write-in filings mean the general will use ranked-choice voting.
The issues
Affordability is Jackson's whole message: housing, utilities, prescription drugs, child care, and tariffs, which he calls a tax on Maine families from his vantage point in the border logging trade. Collins runs on the Appropriations chairmanship, the money it moves to Maine, and her practiced distance from Trump. Republicans answer Jackson's pitch by pointing at his tax votes in the legislature.
Who has the edge, and where
The polls read essentially tied with a slight Jackson lean, and that itself is news. Collins has never trailed this early in any of her five previous races. Her brand is built on split-ticket moderates. His is built to cut into the rural, working-class north where she usually runs up margins. Under ranked-choice rules she has to reach 50 percent after transfers, which has burned Maine Republicans before.
The environment
Maine is the only Republican-held Senate seat in a state Trump lost, which makes it the Democrats' top target alongside North Carolina. The question is old but real: can a personal brand survive a national wind. Collins has answered yes every time so far.
Written by hand, not by the model. As of August 27, 2026.
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanD +7.5
- IncumbencyR +2.5
- National environmentD +4.7
- FundraisingEven
- Fundamentals sayD +9.7
- The polls sayD +2.2
- Blended forecast marginD +3.0
The blend puts 89 percent of its weight on the polls and 11 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The field
How other forecasters see this race
Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.
- Troy Jackson winsThis forecast67 in 100
- Troy Jackson winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2763 in 100
No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Troy Jackson wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Troy Jackson winsThis forecast67 in 100
- Troy Jackson winsKalshi61 in 100
- Troy Jackson winsPolymarket63 in 100
Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist University | Oct 22–25 | — | 49–47 | D +2.0 | +0.9 | 7% |
| Marist University | Oct 22–25 | 1,449 RV | 53–44 | D +9.0 | +0.9 | 7% |
| Echelon Insights (R) | Oct 16–23 | 413 LV | 51–44 | D +7.0 | +0.9 | 11% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Oct 21–23 | 1,077 LV | 47–47 | Even | −1.7 | 6% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | Oct 16–20 | 1,689 RV | 50–48 | D +2.0 | +1.1 | 19% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | Oct 16–20 | 1,514 LV | 49–49 | Even | +1.1 | 10% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | Oct 13–14 | 1,200 LV | 49–47 | D +2.0 | −0.4 | 9% |
| Suffolk University | Oct 8–11 | 500 LV | 49–47 | D +2.0 | +1.5 | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | Oct 5–8 | 804 LV | 49–47 | D +2.0 | −0.6 | 4% |
| The Washington Post / SSPG | Sep 30–Oct 5 | 800 LV | 50–46 | D +4.0 | — | 3% |
| Marist University | Oct 1–4 | 1,505 RV | 51–47 | D +4.0 | +0.9 | <1% |
| CBS News / YouGov | Sep 23–Oct 1 | 1,136 LV | 50–50 | Even | −0.1 | 2% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Sep 29–Oct 1 | 1,091 LV | 46–46 | Even | −1.7 | <1% |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 27–Oct 1 | 400 LV | 52–48 | D +4.0 | +0.1 | 2% |
| co/efficient (R) | Sep 28–30 | 1,240 LV | 46–48 | R +2.0 | −1.0 | 2% |
| Maine People's Resource Center | Sep 25–29 | 684 LV | 49–47 | D +2.0 | +0.5 | 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | Sep 22–23 | 1,200 LV | 46–46 | Even | −0.4 | 1% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | Sep 20–22 | 982 LV | 50–47 | D +3.0 | — | 1% |
| New York Times / Siena University | Sep 15–22 | 619 LV | 46–49 | R +3.0 | — | <1% |
| New York Times / Siena University | Sep 15–22 | 600 LV | 46–49 | R +3.0 | — | <1% |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–21 | 1,312 LV | 51–47 | D +4.0 | −0.1 | 1% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | Sep 14–15 | 621 LV | 46–47 | R +1.0 | −0.4 | <1% |
| University of Massachusetts / YouGov | Aug 28–Sep 14 | 650 LV | 48–43 | D +5.0 | — | <1% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | Sep 8–10 | 1,033 LV | 46–45 | D +1.0 | −0.6 | <1% |
| YouGov | Sep 2–8 | 1,378 RV | 46–44 | D +2.0 | +1.5 | <1% |
| YouGov | Sep 2–8 | 1,335 LV | 48–44 | D +4.0 | +1.5 | <1% |
| SSRS | Aug 31–Sep 6 | 880 LV | 48–45 | D +3.0 | +0.4 | <1% |
| Abacus Data | Aug 26–28 | 500 RV | 45–46 | R +1.0 | — | <1% |
| Abacus Data | Aug 26–28 | 327 LV | 52–43 | D +9.0 | — | <1% |
| Abacus Data | Aug 26–28 | — | 52–43 | D +9.0 | — | <1% |
| Abacus Data | Aug 26–28 | 327 RV | 50–42 | D +8.0 | — | <1% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | Aug 6–10 | 1,000 RV | 48–46 | D +2.0 | +1.1 | <1% |
| Hart Research (D) | Jul 27–Aug 1 | 802 LV | 49–45 | D +4.0 | — | <1% |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 15–20 | 1,178 LV | 49–46 | D +3.0 | −0.1 | <1% |
| Z to A Research (D) | Jul 7–8 | 988 LV | 47–48 | R +1.0 | — | <1% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Jul 7 | 785 LV | 49–44 | D +5.0 | +0.2 | <1% |
| Wedgewood Polls (D) | Jul 4–6 | 405 LV | 48–43 | D +5.0 | +0.1 | <1% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.