2026 Senate forecastThe Upper Chamber by Son Ha

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MI · Senate 2026 · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET

Michigan

Rated Lean D

Abdul El-Sayed wins this seat in 70 in 100 simulations. Call it favored, but far from certain.

  • Portrait of Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-SayedD70 in 100
  • Portrait of Mike RogersMike RogersR30 in 100

The race

What this race is about

The numbers on this page come from the model. This section doesn't. It's a short briefing on the contest itself: who is running, what they are arguing about, and where each side's strength lies.

The matchup

An open seat with Gary Peters retiring. Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive former Detroit health director, edged Rep. Haley Stevens by about one point in the August 4 primary despite being outspent roughly eight to one, after Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign in July. Mike Rogers, the former House Intelligence chair who lost to Elissa Slotkin by about 19,000 votes in 2024, ran essentially unopposed with Trump's endorsement.

The issues

Health care defines the race. El-Sayed wrote a book called Medicare for All, and Republicans run on the taxes it would take, while his current plan keeps private insurance alongside a public option. Affordability and Trump himself fill out the argument: Rogers runs as a stand-with-Trump candidate. The war in Gaza is a live undercurrent, with AIPAC working against El-Sayed. Rogers is openly courting Democrats who backed Stevens in the divisive primary.

Who has the edge, and where

The polling is genuinely scattered. August surveys ranged from El-Sayed up 7 to Rogers up 4, with older voters breaking hard for Rogers. Outside money favors Rogers, with over $50 million committed by the main Republican super PAC. El-Sayed's answer is small-dollar energy and an enthusiasm edge among the most engaged voters. The open question is whether he holds the suburbs Stevens ran best in while driving up Detroit, Arab American, and young turnout.

The environment

Trump carried Michigan in 2024, and a normal midterm backlash would swing it back. The Republican bet is that El-Sayed can be defined as too far left for a purple state. The Democratic bet is that the year matters more than the label.

Written by hand, not by the model. As of August 27, 2026.

Over time

How the forecast has moved

0255075100AprJulOctJan ’26AprJulOctD 70 in 100R 30 in 100Oct 28, 2026
Chance in 100 the seat goes to each side: blue for the Democratic caucus, red for the Republicans · one point per day · hover or tap to read the lines

The margin

How close it lands

Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.

EvenD +3.5
← Mike Rogers aheadAbdul El-Sayed ahead →
Where the simulated margins land · marker at the average margin

Under the hood

What's driving the number

The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.

  • Partisan leanR +0.4
  • IncumbencyEven
  • National environmentD +4.7
  • FundraisingR +0.3
  • Fundamentals sayD +4.0
  • The polls sayD +3.5
  • Blended forecast marginD +3.5

The blend puts 90 percent of its weight on the polls and 10 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.

The field

How other forecasters see this race

Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.

  • Abdul El-Sayed winsThis forecast70 in 100
  • Abdul El-Sayed winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2772 in 100

No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.

The markets

What the betting markets say

Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Abdul El-Sayed wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.

  • Abdul El-Sayed winsThis forecast70 in 100
  • Abdul El-Sayed winsKalshi69 in 100
  • Abdul El-Sayed winsPolymarket70 in 100

Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET

The evidence

The polls, as the model sees them

Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.

PollDatesSampleD–RMarginHouse adj.Weight
RedBox Research (D)Oct 20–232,696 LV49–44D +5.0−0.117%
Glengariff GroupOct 19–22600 LV51–45D +6.0+0.27%
InsiderAdvantage (R)Oct 21–221,200 LV47–46D +1.0−0.414%
Michigan State University / YouGovOct 2–191,000 A44–39D +5.0+0.14%
Michigan State University / YouGovOct 2–19836 LV48–44D +4.0+0.12%
Marist UniversityOct 15–181,185 RV52–45D +7.0+0.97%
Marist UniversityOct 15–18—50–48D +2.0+0.92%
Rasmussen Reports (R)Oct 12–14798 LV46–44D +2.0−0.65%
InsiderAdvantage (R)Oct 9–101,200 LV48–46D +2.0−0.43%
Wedgewood PollsOct 8–9607 LV53–47D +6.0+0.13%
The Tyson Group (R)Oct 6–8600 LV44–46R +2.0−0.22%
Quantus Insights (R)Oct 5–6762 LV51–49D +2.0−0.43%
YouGovSep 22–Oct 43,949 LV49–48D +1.0+1.57%
Z to A Research (D)Sep 28–Oct 1483 LV49–42D +7.0—2%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsOct 1682 LV46–41D +5.0+1.23%
Trafalgar Group (R)Sep 28–301,085 LV47–45D +2.0−1.71%
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)Sep 24–281,203 RV51–48D +3.0+1.13%
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)Sep 24–281,028 LV50–49D +1.0+1.12%
The Tyson Group (R)Sep 24–27600 LV44–43D +1.0−0.2<1%
Guidant Polling & StrategySep 20–27800 LV49–45D +4.0—1%
Marist UniversitySep 24–271,235 RV51–44D +7.0+0.9<1%
Big Data Poll (R)Sep 22–24725 RV44–39D +5.0−0.3<1%
Big Data Poll (R)Sep 22–24678 LV46–40D +6.0−0.3<1%
co/efficient (R)Sep 21–23843 LV50–50Even−1.0<1%
GBAO (D)Sep 19–22800 LV48–44D +4.0−0.3<1%
New York Times / Siena UniversitySep 15–22605 LV49–44D +5.0—<1%
New York Times / Siena UniversitySep 15–22600 LV49–44D +5.0—<1%
Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D)Sep 18–21600 LV45–40D +5.0—<1%
Suffolk UniversitySep 16–20500 LV47–40D +7.0+1.51%
Torchlight Strategies (R)Sep 15–19643 LV43–44R +1.0—<1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)Sep 16–171,200 LV47–45D +2.0−0.4<1%
The Washington Post / SSPGSep 10–14803 LV48–45D +3.0—<1%
Emerson CollegeSep 12–141,000 LV48–46D +2.0+0.91%
Trafalgar Group (R)Sep 7–91,079 LV46–45D +1.0−1.7<1%
SSRSAug 31–Sep 6843 LV47–44D +3.0+0.4<1%
Glengariff GroupAug 31–Sep 3600 LV44–46R +2.0+0.2<1%
Abacus DataAug 26–28500 RV48–41D +7.0—<1%
Abacus DataAug 26–28332 LV49–45D +4.0—<1%
Abacus DataAug 26–28—49–45D +4.0—<1%
EPIC-MRAAug 22–28600 LV47–43D +4.0+0.5<1%
Michigan State University / YouGovAug 10–20779 LV50–45D +5.0+0.1<1%
Michigan State University / YouGovAug 10–20913 RV48–44D +4.0+0.1<1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)Aug 11–17800 LV46–39D +7.0—<1%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)Aug 9–11877 LV48–47D +1.0—<1%
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)Aug 6–101,006 RV47–51R +4.0+1.1<1%
GBAO (D)Aug 6–10800 LV50–44D +6.0−0.3<1%
TIPP Insights (R)Aug 6–101,215 LV45–42D +3.0−0.4<1%
TIPP Insights (R)Aug 6–101,528 RV43–39D +4.0−0.4<1%
EPIC-MRAJul 24–31600 LV43–46R +3.0+0.5<1%
SoCal Strategies (R)Jul 28–30640 LV41–42R +1.0—<1%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJul 28–29672 LV45–45Even+1.2<1%
Glengariff GroupJul 22–24600 LV39–49R +10.0+0.2<1%
Quantus Insights (R)Jun 29–30947 LV45–44D +1.0−0.4<1%
Data for Progress (D)Jun 15–22709 LV47–46D +1.0+1.6<1%
Zenith Research (D)Jun 11–14602 LV45–42D +3.0—<1%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJun 11–13827 LV47–42D +5.0+1.2<1%
Tulchin Research (D)Jun 2–4500 LV46–41D +5.0−0.6<1%
TIPP Insights (R)May 20–231,163 LV43–42D +1.0−0.4<1%
TIPP Insights (R)May 20–231,456 RV40–40Even−0.4<1%
Mitchell ResearchMay 1–7607 LV41–42R +1.0—<1%
Glengariff GroupApr 28–May 1600 LV42–45R +3.0+0.2<1%
Emerson CollegeJan 24–251,000 LV43–43Even+0.90%
Glengariff GroupJan 2–6600 LV42–48R +6.0+0.20%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsNov 18–21616 LV38–41R +3.0+1.20%
Rosetta Stone Communications (R)Oct 23–25637 LV31–45R +14.0—0%
Glengariff GroupMay 5–8600 RV45–47R +2.0+0.20%

How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.