MT · Senate 2026 · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
Montana
Rated Solid R
Kurt Alme wins this seat in 97 in 100 simulations. Call it all but certain.
- Kurt AlmeR97 in 100
- Seth BodnarI3 in 100
- Alani BankheadD<1 in 100
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanR +19.0
- IncumbencyEven
- National environmentD +4.7
- FundraisingR +1.5
- Fundamentals sayR +15.9
- The polls sayR +27.6
- Blended forecast marginR +22.4
The blend puts 55 percent of its weight on the polls and 45 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The field
How other forecasters see this race
Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.
- Kurt Alme winsThis forecast97 in 100
- Kurt Alme winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2797 in 100
No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Kurt Alme wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Kurt Alme winsThis forecast97 in 100
- Kurt Alme winsKalshi92 in 100
- Kurt Alme winsPolymarket92 in 100
Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R) | Oct 15–18 | 667 LV | 31–47 | R +16.0 | −0.4 | 44% |
| Peak Insights (R) | Oct 7–12 | 500 LV | 29–44 | R +15.0 | −0.2 | 24% |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | Oct 6–8 | 405 LV | 37–35 | D +2.0 | −0.3 | 14% |
| American Pulse Research | Sep 19–24 | 604 LV | 26–45 | R +19.0 | — | 7% |
| Aspect Strategic | Sep 7–15 | 715 LV | 32–44 | R +12.0 | — | 4% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | Sep 14–15 | 625 LV | 24–44 | R +20.0 | −0.4 | 2% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | Aug 27–Sep 7 | 845 RV | 30–38 | R +8.0 | — | 2% |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics | Aug 27–Sep 7 | 845 RV | 30–38 | R +8.0 | — | 2% |
| Peak Insights (R) | Aug 23–25 | 600 LV | 22–44 | R +22.0 | −0.2 | <1% |
| Hart Research (D) | Aug 1–4 | 800 LV | 30–45 | R +15.0 | — | <1% |
| Tavern Research (D) | Jul 23–27 | 517 LV | 27–49 | R +22.0 | — | <1% |
| GQR (D) | Jul 23–26 | 500 LV | 27–41 | R +14.0 | −0.3 | <1% |
| Bullfinch Group (R) | Jul 13–16 | 793 LV | 24–36 | R +12.0 | — | <1% |
| Hart Research (D) | Jun 18–24 | 800 LV | 25–47 | R +22.0 | — | <1% |
| GrayHouse (R) | Jun 23–24 | 500 RV | 25–41 | R +16.0 | — | <1% |
| Tavern Research (D) | Jun 16–19 | 400 LV | 26–49 | R +23.0 | — | <1% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | Jun 8–11 | 500 LV | 25–44 | R +19.0 | — | <1% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.