NE · Senate 2026 · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
Nebraska
Rated Lean R
Pete Ricketts wins this seat in 61 in 100 simulations. Call it could easily go either way.
Pete RickettsRIncumbent61 in 100
Dan OsbornI39 in 100
The race
What this race is about
The numbers on this page come from the model. This section doesn't. It's a short briefing on the contest itself: who is running, what they are arguing about, and where each side's strength lies.
The matchup
Sen. Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn, with no Democrat on the ballot. The state party stood down on purpose to give Osborn a clean two-way race, the second straight cycle Nebraska's Senate ballot has no Democrat. Osborn, an industrial mechanic and Navy veteran who led the 2021 Kellogg's strike in Omaha, took 46.5 percent against Deb Fischer in 2024. Ricketts, the billionaire former two-term governor appointed to the seat in 2023, is seeking his first full term.
The issues
Osborn runs economic populism: wages, health care costs, labor protections, plus support for border security. This August's closure of the Kellogg's plant in Omaha, where he led the strike, handed him his central symbol. Ricketts' campaign runs less on issues than on Osborn himself, calling him a fake independent funded by out-of-state Democratic money. The caucus question is the hinge: Osborn insists he would side with neither party.
Who has the edge, and where
Every major public poll shows a statistical tie, most recently 48 to 47 for Ricketts. The favorability gap is striking: Osborn is above water while Ricketts sits 10 points under, unpopular even with a quarter of Republicans. Osborn has at times out-raised him, but Ricketts can self-fund without limit. Forecasters still rate the race Likely Republican on the state's lean alone.
The environment
Nebraska is red enough that Osborn needs everything to break right. But a Democratic-leaning year, an unpopular incumbent, and no Democrat splitting the protest vote make this the cycle's highest-upside dark horse. A win here would scramble everyone's Senate math.
Written by hand, not by the model. As of August 27, 2026.
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanR +10.1
- IncumbencyR +2.5
- National environmentD +4.7
- FundraisingR +0.2
- Fundamentals sayR +8.1
- The polls sayR +0.3
- Blended forecast marginR +1.9
The blend puts 79 percent of its weight on the polls and 21 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The field
How other forecasters see this race
Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.
- Pete Ricketts winsThis forecast61 in 100
- Pete Ricketts winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2776 in 100
No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Pete Ricketts wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Pete Ricketts winsThis forecast61 in 100
- Pete Ricketts winsKalshi72 in 100
- Pete Ricketts winsPolymarket72 in 100
Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights (R) | Oct 16–23 | 407 LV | 46–47 | R +1.0 | — | 23% |
| GBAO (D) | Oct 18–22 | 800 LV | 46–45 | D +1.0 | — | 16% |
| Impact Research (D) | Oct 14–20 | 600 LV | 48–50 | R +2.0 | — | 14% |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | Oct 15–18 | 500 LV | 48–41 | D +7.0 | — | 9% |
| National Public Affairs (R) | Oct 15–18 | 598 LV | 47–50 | R +3.0 | — | 13% |
| National Public Affairs (R) | Oct 2–5 | 800 LV | 46–49 | R +3.0 | — | 3% |
| YouGov | Sep 24–Oct 3 | 1,809 LV | 48–47 | D +1.0 | — | 13% |
| co/efficient (R) | Sep 28–30 | 1,113 LV | 43–48 | R +5.0 | — | 4% |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 14–16 | 500 LV | 48–52 | R +4.0 | — | 1% |
| SurveyUSA | Sep 8–13 | 503 LV | 46–42 | D +4.0 | — | 2% |
| GBAO (D) | Sep 3–8 | 800 LV | 47–46 | D +1.0 | — | <1% |
| Impact Research (D) | Aug 9–13 | 600 LV | 47–47 | Even | — | <1% |
| Tavern Research (D) | May 8–11 | 1,165 LV | 47–42 | D +5.0 | — | <1% |
| Impact Research (D) | Feb 2–5 | 600 LV | 47–48 | R +1.0 | — | 0% |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | Dec 11–17 | 900 LV | 47–48 | R +1.0 | — | 0% |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | Jul 23–29 | 900 LV | 47–46 | D +1.0 | — | 0% |
| Change Research (D) | Mar 28–Apr 1 | 524 LV | 45–46 | R +1.0 | — | 0% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.