NE · Senate 2026 · Updated Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
Nebraska
Rated Lean R
Pete Ricketts wins this seat in 77 in 100 simulations. Call it favored, but far from certain.
Pete RickettsRIncumbent77 in 100
Dan OsbornI23 in 100
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanR +10.1
- IncumbencyR +2.5
- National environmentD +5.1
- FundraisingR +0.4
- Fundamentals sayR +7.9
- The polls sayEven
- Blended forecast marginR +6.7
The blend puts 15 percent of its weight on the polls and 85 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Pete Ricketts wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Pete Ricketts winsThis forecast77 in 100
- Pete Ricketts winsKalshi70 in 100
- Pete Ricketts winsPolymarket70 in 100
Market prices as of Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research (D) | Aug 9–13 | 600 LV | 47–47 | Even | — | 100% |
| Tavern Research (D) | May 8–11 | 1,165 LV | 47–42 | D +5.0 | — | <1% |
| Impact Research (D) | Feb 2–5 | 600 LV | 47–48 | R +1.0 | — | <1% |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | Dec 11–17 | 900 LV | 47–48 | R +1.0 | — | <1% |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | Jul 23–29 | 900 LV | 47–46 | D +1.0 | — | 0% |
| Change Research (D) | Mar 28–Apr 1 | 524 LV | 45–46 | R +1.0 | — | 0% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.