NH · Senate 2026 · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
New Hampshire
Rated Likely D
Chris Pappas wins this seat in 86 in 100 simulations. Call it clearly favored.
Chris PappasD86 in 100
John E. SununuR14 in 100
The race
What this race is about
The numbers on this page come from the model. This section doesn't. It's a short briefing on the contest itself: who is running, what they are arguing about, and where each side's strength lies.
The matchup
An open seat with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen retiring, and the one key race where the primary is still ahead, on September 8. Both nominees are presumptive. Rep. Chris Pappas, whose family runs Manchester's Puritan Backroom restaurant, leads the Democratic field comfortably. John E. Sununu, who held this seat from 2003 to 2009 and lost it to Shaheen, leads Scott Brown by wide margins with Trump's endorsement. Sununu is trying to win back his old seat 18 years later.
The issues
Housing is the issue, ahead of everything. The average New Hampshire home now costs over $500,000 and the state is short an estimated 90,000 units. Pappas runs on building more, a first-time buyer credit, and health and energy costs. Both men campaign as moderates, which makes this the rare marquee race without an ideological flamethrower in it.
Who has the edge, and where
It has tightened all year. Pappas led by 7 in the spring; the newest University of New Hampshire poll has Sununu up 45 to 43, a statistical tie. This is the Democrats' most vulnerable seat of the cycle, and Sununu's crossover family brand is the reason. Pappas has run ahead of the alternative Republican matchups, so the September 8 result matters.
The environment
New Hampshire leans blue in federal races and the national wind helps Pappas. But the affordability backlash is real here, and this is the Republicans' best pickup chance on the map. Losing it would just about close the Democrats' already narrow path to a majority.
Written by hand, not by the model. As of August 27, 2026.
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanD +3.9
- IncumbencyEven
- National environmentD +4.7
- FundraisingD +0.9
- Fundamentals sayD +9.5
- The polls sayD +7.0
- Blended forecast marginD +7.6
The blend puts 79 percent of its weight on the polls and 21 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The field
How other forecasters see this race
Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.
- Chris Pappas winsThis forecast86 in 100
- Chris Pappas winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2795 in 100
No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Chris Pappas wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Chris Pappas winsThis forecast86 in 100
- Chris Pappas winsKalshi89 in 100
- Chris Pappas winsPolymarket91 in 100
Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | Oct 20–23 | 970 LV | 50–44 | D +6.0 | −0.6 | 25% |
| Saint Anselm College | Oct 19–20 | 1,672 LV | 50–43 | D +7.0 | — | 29% |
| National Public Affairs (R) | Oct 8–12 | 600 LV | 50–43 | D +7.0 | — | 9% |
| YouGov | Sep 28–Oct 5 | 1,520 LV | 51–43 | D +8.0 | +1.5 | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | Oct 2–4 | 979 LV | 49–44 | D +5.0 | −0.6 | 4% |
| Saint Anselm College | Sep 28–29 | 1,042 LV | 51–44 | D +7.0 | — | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Sep 26–27 | 1,082 LV | 47–41 | D +6.0 | −1.7 | 2% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Sep 23–25 | 1,090 LV | 46–42 | D +4.0 | −1.7 | 1% |
| New York Times / Siena University | Sep 15–22 | 613 LV | 50–45 | D +5.0 | — | 2% |
| New York Times / Siena University | Sep 15–22 | 600 LV | 50–45 | D +5.0 | — | 1% |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–21 | 1,418 LV | 50–42 | D +8.0 | −0.1 | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | Sep 16–17 | 1,200 LV | 48–40 | D +8.0 | −0.4 | 3% |
| co/efficient (R) | Sep 9–11 | 958 LV | 46–46 | Even | −1.0 | 1% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | Sep 8–10 | 1,000 LV | 45–34 | D +11.0 | −0.6 | <1% |
| Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates (R) | Aug 27–30 | 600 LV | 36–37 | R +1.0 | — | <1% |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 20–24 | 1,878 LV | 43–45 | R +2.0 | −0.1 | <1% |
| Saint Anselm College | Aug 17–18 | 1,411 LV | 48–41 | D +7.0 | — | <1% |
| Peak Insights (R) | Jun 24–27 | 500 LV | 43–42 | D +1.0 | −0.2 | <1% |
| Saint Anselm College | Jun 24–25 | 1,614 RV | 47–41 | D +6.0 | — | <1% |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–23 | 2,232 LV | 47–44 | D +3.0 | −0.1 | <1% |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 17–21 | 1,295 LV | 49–42 | D +7.0 | −0.1 | <1% |
| Emerson College | Mar 21–23 | 1,000 LV | 45–44 | D +1.0 | +0.9 | <1% |
| Saint Anselm College | Mar 16–18 | 1,491 RV | 46–43 | D +3.0 | — | 0% |
| yes. every kid. | Jan 28–29 | 563 LV | 45–41 | D +4.0 | — | 0% |
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 15–19 | 2,053 LV | 50–45 | D +5.0 | −0.1 | 0% |
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | Dec 26–28 | 603 RV | 42–36 | D +6.0 | — | 0% |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy (R) | Dec 9–11 | 600 LV | 47–44 | D +3.0 | — | 0% |
| Saint Anselm College | Nov 18–19 | 2,212 RV | 44–41 | D +3.0 | — | 0% |
| co/efficient (R) | Oct 9–13 | 1,034 LV | 45–42 | D +3.0 | −1.0 | 0% |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–23 | 1,235 LV | 49–43 | D +6.0 | −0.1 | 0% |
| co/efficient (R) | Sep 10–12 | 904 LV | 46–43 | D +3.0 | −1.0 | 0% |
| 1892 Polling (R) | Sep 2–4 | 500 LV | 45–43 | D +2.0 | −0.4 | 0% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | Mar 17–19 | 650 RV | 44–53 | R +9.0 | −0.4 | 0% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.