NH · Senate 2026 · Updated Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
New Hampshire
Rated Lean D
Chris Pappas wins this seat in 77 in 100 simulations. Call it favored, but far from certain.
Chris PappasD77 in 100
John E. SununuR23 in 100
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanD +3.9
- IncumbencyEven
- National environmentD +5.1
- FundraisingD +0.8
- Fundamentals sayD +9.8
- The polls sayD +2.1
- Blended forecast marginD +5.8
The blend puts 53 percent of its weight on the polls and 47 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Chris Pappas wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Chris Pappas winsThis forecast77 in 100
- Chris Pappas winsKalshi86 in 100
- Chris Pappas winsPolymarket88 in 100
Market prices as of Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 20–24 | 1,878 LV | 43–45 | R +2.0 | −1.1 | 60% |
| Saint Anselm College | Aug 17–18 | 1,411 LV | 48–41 | D +7.0 | +0.7 | 38% |
| Peak Insights (R) | Jun 24–27 | 500 LV | 43–42 | D +1.0 | — | <1% |
| Saint Anselm College | Jun 24–25 | 1,614 RV | 47–41 | D +6.0 | +0.7 | <1% |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–23 | 2,232 LV | 47–44 | D +3.0 | −1.1 | <1% |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 17–21 | 1,295 LV | 49–42 | D +7.0 | −1.1 | <1% |
| Emerson College | Mar 21–23 | 1,000 LV | 45–44 | D +1.0 | +0.9 | <1% |
| Saint Anselm College | Mar 16–18 | 1,491 RV | 46–43 | D +3.0 | +0.7 | <1% |
| yes. every kid. | Jan 28–29 | 563 LV | 45–41 | D +4.0 | — | <1% |
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 15–19 | 2,053 LV | 50–45 | D +5.0 | −1.1 | <1% |
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | Dec 26–28 | 603 RV | 42–36 | D +6.0 | — | <1% |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy (R) | Dec 9–11 | 600 LV | 47–44 | D +3.0 | — | 0% |
| Saint Anselm College | Nov 18–19 | 2,212 RV | 44–41 | D +3.0 | +0.7 | 0% |
| co/efficient (R) | Oct 9–13 | 1,034 LV | 45–42 | D +3.0 | −0.6 | 0% |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–23 | 1,235 LV | 49–43 | D +6.0 | −1.1 | 0% |
| co/efficient (R) | Sep 10–12 | 904 LV | 46–43 | D +3.0 | −0.6 | 0% |
| 1892 Polling (R) | Sep 2–4 | 500 LV | 45–43 | D +2.0 | −0.4 | 0% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | Mar 17–19 | 650 RV | 44–53 | R +9.0 | — | 0% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.