NC · Senate 2026 · Updated Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
North Carolina
Rated Lean D
Roy Cooper wins this seat in 77 in 100 simulations. Call it favored, but far from certain.
Roy CooperD77 in 100
Michael WhatleyR23 in 100
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanR +2.7
- IncumbencyEven
- National environmentD +5.1
- FundraisingD +0.7
- Fundamentals sayD +3.1
- The polls sayD +9.5
- Blended forecast marginD +6.0
The blend puts 45 percent of its weight on the polls and 55 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Roy Cooper wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Roy Cooper winsThis forecast77 in 100
- Roy Cooper winsKalshi92 in 100
- Roy Cooper winsPolymarket92 in 100
Market prices as of Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University / YouGov | Aug 3–12 | 660 LV | 50–45 | D +5.0 | −0.2 | 18% |
| High Point University / YouGov | Aug 3–12 | 800 RV | 48–41 | D +7.0 | −0.2 | 9% |
| Harper Polling (R) | Aug 9–10 | 600 LV | 52–39 | D +13.0 | +0.3 | 20% |
| Change Research (D) | Aug 3–6 | 915 LV | 50–43 | D +7.0 | — | 16% |
| Change Research (D) | Jul 29–Aug 1 | 967 V | 50–41 | D +9.0 | — | 6% |
| Elon University / YouGov | Jul 23–31 | 800 A | 47–33 | D +14.0 | +0.1 | 7% |
| Elon University / YouGov | Jul 23–31 | 717 RV | 51–35 | D +16.0 | +0.1 | 4% |
| Elon University / YouGov | Jul 23–31 | 466 LV | 53–42 | D +11.0 | +0.1 | 2% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | Jul 23–27 | 1,005 RV | 53–44 | D +9.0 | +1.0 | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Jul 10–11 | 759 LV | 48–44 | D +4.0 | +0.4 | 3% |
| New York Times / Siena University | Jun 15–27 | 601 LV | 50–43 | D +7.0 | — | <1% |
| Catawba College / YouGov | Jun 1–10 | 905 LV | 48–34 | D +14.0 | — | <1% |
| Harper Polling (R) | May 10–11 | 600 LV | 50–39 | D +11.0 | +0.3 | <1% |
| Change Research (D) | May 4–8 | 957 LV | 49–42 | D +7.0 | — | <1% |
| Opinion Diagnostics (R) | Apr 21–24 | 830 V | 50–41 | D +9.0 | — | <1% |
| High Point University / YouGov | Mar 26–Apr 6 | 800 RV | 49–39 | D +10.0 | −0.2 | <1% |
| High Point University / YouGov | Mar 26–Apr 6 | 703 LV | 50–42 | D +8.0 | −0.2 | <1% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | Mar 31–Apr 1 | 987 LV | 49–44 | D +5.0 | — | <1% |
| Harper Polling (R) | Mar 22–23 | 600 LV | 49–41 | D +8.0 | +0.3 | <1% |
| Catawba College / YouGov | Mar 9–18 | 1,000 LV | 48–34 | D +14.0 | — | <1% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Mar 13–14 | 556 V | 47–44 | D +3.0 | +0.4 | <1% |
| Nexus Strategies/ Strategic Partners Solutions | Mar 8–9 | 800 RV | 50–32 | D +18.0 | — | <1% |
| Change Research (D) | Jan 31–Feb 4 | 1,069 RV | 50–40 | D +10.0 | — | <1% |
| TIPP Insights (R) | Jan 12–15 | 1,512 RV | 48–24 | D +24.0 | −0.2 | <1% |
| Change Research (D) | Jan 5–7 | 1,105 LV | 47–42 | D +5.0 | — | 0% |
| Harper Polling (R) | Nov 9–10 | 600 LV | 47–39 | D +8.0 | +0.3 | 0% |
| Harper Polling (R) | Sep 14–15 | 600 RV | 46–42 | D +4.0 | +0.3 | 0% |
| Change Research (D) | Sep 2–8 | 855 LV | 48–41 | D +7.0 | — | 0% |
| Harper Polling (R) | Aug 11–12 | 600 RV | 47–39 | D +8.0 | +0.3 | 0% |
| Victory Insights (R) | Jul 28–30 | 600 LV | 44–44 | Even | +0.1 | 0% |
| Emerson College | Jul 28–30 | 1,000 RV | 47–41 | D +6.0 | +0.9 | 0% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.