2026 Senate forecastThe Upper Chamber by Son Ha

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NC · Senate 2026 · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET

North Carolina

Rated Likely D

Roy Cooper wins this seat in 91 in 100 simulations. Call it clearly favored.

  • Portrait of Roy CooperRoy CooperD91 in 100
  • Portrait of Michael WhatleyMichael WhatleyR9 in 100

The race

What this race is about

The numbers on this page come from the model. This section doesn't. It's a short briefing on the contest itself: who is running, what they are arguing about, and where each side's strength lies.

The matchup

An open seat: Sen. Thom Tillis passed on a third term. Democrats landed their best possible recruit in Roy Cooper, a two-term governor and four-term attorney general who has never lost a statewide race in almost 40 years of running. Republicans nominated Michael Whatley, the former RNC chair, after Trump backed him and Lara Trump opted out. Both cleared their fields in the summer of 2025, and the March primaries were formalities.

The issues

Affordability tops voter surveys, and Cooper is running straight at it with a Make Stuff Cost Less tour and his Medicaid expansion record. Whatley's counter is crime and immigration. GOP ads lean hard on the 2025 killing of Iryna Zarutska on a Charlotte train, blaming Cooper's years as governor. The framing war is government help on costs against law and order.

Who has the edge, and where

Cooper leads consistently, by 8 to 13 points in most public polling, and nearly every voter in the state already knows him. Whatley's name recognition still trails badly for a first-time candidate. Cooper has also out-raised him about two to one, though Republican outside groups have pledged over $70 million to close the gap. Cook moved the race to Lean Democrat on August 20.

The environment

Trump carried North Carolina three times, so the fundamentals say close. But a popular ex-governor against a party operative who has never held office, in a year favoring Democrats nationally, has so far not been close. Both parties treat this seat as central to Senate control.

Written by hand, not by the model. As of August 27, 2026.

Over time

How the forecast has moved

0255075100AprJulOctJan ’26AprJulOctD 91 in 100R 9 in 100Oct 28, 2026
Chance in 100 the seat goes to each side: blue for the Democratic caucus, red for the Republicans · one point per day · hover or tap to read the lines

The margin

How close it lands

Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.

EvenD +9.5
← Michael Whatley aheadRoy Cooper ahead →
Where the simulated margins land · marker at the average margin

Under the hood

What's driving the number

The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.

  • Partisan leanR +2.7
  • IncumbencyEven
  • National environmentD +4.7
  • FundraisingD +0.8
  • Fundamentals sayD +2.7
  • The polls sayD +10.6
  • Blended forecast marginD +9.4

The blend puts 84 percent of its weight on the polls and 16 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.

The field

How other forecasters see this race

Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.

  • Roy Cooper winsThis forecast91 in 100
  • Roy Cooper winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2793 in 100

No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.

The markets

What the betting markets say

Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Roy Cooper wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.

  • Roy Cooper winsThis forecast91 in 100
  • Roy Cooper winsKalshi97 in 100
  • Roy Cooper winsPolymarket97 in 100

Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET

The evidence

The polls, as the model sees them

Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.

PollDatesSampleD–RMarginHouse adj.Weight
Quantus Insights (R)Oct 24–25702 LV54–45D +9.0−0.419%
Quantus Insights (R)Oct 24–25722 LV52–43D +9.0−0.410%
Harper Polling (R)Oct 18–20600 LV52–42D +10.0+0.212%
ActiVoteOct 8–20400 LV57–43D +14.0+0.17%
SurveyUSAOct 7–11643 LV54–40D +14.0+1.911%
Trafalgar Group (R)Oct 8–101,091 LV49–41D +8.0−1.74%
Elon University / YouGovSep 29–Oct 8561 LV52–39D +13.0+0.14%
Change Research (D)Oct 1–7829 LV50–40D +10.0+0.45%
East Carolina UniversitySep 30–Oct 3810 LV53–46D +7.0−0.14%
Big Data PollSep 27–29698 RV49–38D +11.0−0.32%
Big Data PollSep 27–29642 LV51–39D +12.0−0.31%
Quantus Insights (R)Sep 21–22686 LV48–43D +5.0−0.4<1%
Harper Polling (R)Sep 18–20608 LV49–34D +15.0+0.2<1%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)Sep 17–201,806 LV53–42D +11.0—2%
Opinion DiagnosticsSep 17–20857 LV52–44D +8.0—2%
YouGovSep 15–183,511 LV54–41D +13.0+1.56%
YouGovSep 15–183,742 LV53–41D +12.0+1.53%
YouGovSep 15–183,864 RV52–41D +11.0+1.51%
InsiderAdvantage (R)Sep 16–171,200 LV48–43D +5.0−0.42%
High Point UniversitySep 9–16706 LV50–42D +8.0—1%
High Point UniversitySep 9–16813 RV49–39D +10.0—<1%
Catawba College / YouGovSep 4–15885 LV48–37D +11.0—<1%
Harper Polling (R)Sep 13–15608 LV49–34D +15.0+0.2<1%
The Trafalgar Group (R)Sep 8–101,084 LV48–42D +6.0—<1%
East Carolina UniversityAug 31–Sep 3675 LV52–44D +8.0−0.1<1%
Elon University / YouGovAug 21–31800 A39–29D +10.0+0.1<1%
Elon University / YouGovAug 21–31677 RV49–36D +13.0+0.1<1%
Elon University / YouGovAug 21–31565 LV49–38D +11.0+0.1<1%
High Point University / YouGovAug 3–12660 LV50–45D +5.0—<1%
High Point University / YouGovAug 3–12800 RV48–41D +7.0—<1%
Harper Polling (R)Aug 9–10600 LV52–39D +13.0+0.2<1%
Change Research (D)Aug 3–6915 LV50–43D +7.0+0.4<1%
Change Research (D)Jul 29–Aug 1967 V50–41D +9.0+0.4<1%
Elon University / YouGovJul 23–31800 A47–33D +14.0+0.1<1%
Elon University / YouGovJul 23–31717 RV51–35D +16.0+0.1<1%
Elon University / YouGovJul 23–31466 LV53–42D +11.0+0.1<1%
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)Jul 23–271,005 RV53–44D +9.0+1.1<1%
Public Policy Polling (D)Jul 10–11759 LV48–44D +4.0+0.2<1%
New York Times / Siena UniversityJun 15–27601 LV50–43D +7.0—<1%
Catawba College / YouGovJun 1–10905 LV48–34D +14.0—<1%
Harper Polling (R)May 10–11600 LV50–39D +11.0+0.2<1%
Change Research (D)May 4–8957 LV49–42D +7.0+0.4<1%
Opinion Diagnostics (R)Apr 21–24830 V50–41D +9.0—<1%
High Point University / YouGovMar 26–Apr 6800 RV49–39D +10.0—<1%
High Point University / YouGovMar 26–Apr 6703 LV50–42D +8.0—<1%
Quantus Insights (R)Mar 31–Apr 1987 LV49–44D +5.0−0.4<1%
Harper Polling (R)Mar 22–23600 LV49–41D +8.0+0.20%
Catawba College / YouGovMar 9–181,000 LV48–34D +14.0—<1%
Public Policy Polling (D)Mar 13–14556 V47–44D +3.0+0.2<1%
Nexus Strategies/ Strategic Partners SolutionsMar 8–9800 RV50–32D +18.0—<1%
Change Research (D)Jan 31–Feb 41,069 RV50–40D +10.0+0.40%
TIPP Insights (R)Jan 12–151,512 RV48–24D +24.0−0.40%
Change Research (D)Jan 5–71,105 LV47–42D +5.0+0.40%
Harper Polling (R)Nov 9–10600 LV47–39D +8.0+0.20%
Harper Polling (R)Sep 14–15600 RV46–42D +4.0+0.20%
Change Research (D)Sep 2–8855 LV48–41D +7.0+0.40%
Harper Polling (R)Aug 11–12600 RV47–39D +8.0+0.20%
Victory Insights (R)Jul 28–30600 LV44–44Even+0.10%
Emerson CollegeJul 28–301,000 RV47–41D +6.0+0.90%

How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.