OH · Special election · Updated Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
Ohio (special)
Rated Toss-up
Jon Husted wins this seat in 56 in 100 simulations. Call it could easily go either way.
Jon HustedRIncumbent56 in 100
Sherrod BrownD44 in 100
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanR +10.4
- IncumbencyR +1.0
- National environmentD +5.1
- FundraisingD +0.6
- Fundamentals sayR +5.7
- The polls sayD +5.7
- Blended forecast marginR +1.4
The blend puts 37 percent of its weight on the polls and 63 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Jon Husted wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Jon Husted winsThis forecast56 in 100
- Jon Husted winsKalshi47 in 100
- Jon Husted winsPolymarket45 in 100
Market prices as of Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | Aug 11–13 | 800 LV | 48–44 | D +4.0 | −0.1 | 37% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | Aug 6–10 | 1,008 RV | 53–45 | D +8.0 | +1.0 | 51% |
| Tulchin Research (D) | Jul 29–Aug 4 | 600 LV | 47–43 | D +4.0 | −0.6 | 10% |
| New York Times / Siena University | Jun 15–28 | 601 LV | 47–50 | R +3.0 | — | <1% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | Jun 14–16 | 800 LV | 48–45 | D +3.0 | — | <1% |
| Tulchin Research (D) | Jun 2–4 | 600 LV | 46–42 | D +4.0 | −0.6 | <1% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | May 28–Jun 1 | 1,015 RV | 53–45 | D +8.0 | +1.0 | <1% |
| Bowling Green State University / YouGov | Apr 7–14 | 1,000 RV | 47–50 | R +3.0 | — | <1% |
| Echelon Insights (R) | Apr 3–9 | 413 LV | 45–51 | R +6.0 | +0.7 | <1% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | Mar 13–14 | 784 LV | 44–46 | R +2.0 | — | <1% |
| OnMessage Public Strategies (R) | Mar 3–8 | 600 LV | 47–45 | D +2.0 | — | <1% |
| EMC Research (D) | Feb 10–22 | 1,343 LV | 51–47 | D +4.0 | −0.9 | <1% |
| Emerson College | Dec 6–8 | 850 RV | 46–49 | R +3.0 | +0.9 | <1% |
| Bowling Green State University / YouGov | Oct 2–14 | 800 RV | 49–48 | D +1.0 | — | 0% |
| Hart Research (D) | Sep 19–22 | 800 LV | 48–45 | D +3.0 | −0.2 | 0% |
| Emerson College | Aug 18–19 | 1,000 RV | 44–50 | R +6.0 | +0.9 | 0% |
| Bowling Green State University / YouGov | Apr 18–24 | 800 RV | 46–49 | R +3.0 | — | 0% |
| Bowling Green State University / YouGov | Feb 14–21 | 800 RV | 41–47 | R +6.0 | — | 0% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.