RI · Senate 2026 · Updated Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
Rhode Island
Rated Solid D
Jack Reed wins this seat in >99 in 100 simulations. Call it all but certain.
Jack ReedDIncumbent>99 in 100- Raymond McKayR<1 in 100
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanD +15.5
- IncumbencyD +2.5
- National environmentD +5.1
- FundraisingD +1.5
- Fundamentals sayD +24.6
- The polls sayD +20.4
- Blended forecast marginD +24.6
The blend puts 1 percent of its weight on the polls and 99 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Jack Reed wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Jack Reed winsThis forecast>99 in 100
- Jack Reed winsKalshi96 in 100
- Jack Reed winsPolymarket96 in 100
Market prices as of Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–23 | 664 LV | 52–35 | D +17.0 | −1.1 | 99% |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–20 | 556 LV | 52–34 | D +18.0 | −1.1 | <1% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.