SC · Senate 2026 · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
South Carolina
Rated Lean R
Darline Graham wins this seat in 68 in 100 simulations. Call it favored, but far from certain.
Darline GrahamRIncumbent68 in 100- Annie AndrewsD32 in 100
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanR +16.3
- IncumbencyR +1.0
- National environmentD +4.7
- FundraisingD +0.1
- Fundamentals sayR +12.6
- The polls sayR +0.4
- Blended forecast marginR +3.3
The blend puts 76 percent of its weight on the polls and 24 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.
The field
How other forecasters see this race
Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.
- Darline Graham winsThis forecast68 in 100
- Darline Graham winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2767 in 100
No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Darline Graham wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Darline Graham winsThis forecast68 in 100
- Darline Graham winsKalshi78 in 100
- Darline Graham winsPolymarket80 in 100
Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Media Research | Oct 16–25 | 895 LV | 46–47 | R +1.0 | — | 27% |
| Impact Research (D) | Oct 15–21 | 800 LV | 45–44 | D +1.0 | −0.2 | 21% |
| onpointpolitics [1] | Oct 18–19 | 511 RV | 45–42 | D +3.0 | +0.2 | 16% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Oct 16–18 | 1,095 LV | 46–49 | R +3.0 | −1.7 | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | Oct 5–8 | 837 LV | 45–49 | R +4.0 | −0.6 | 10% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | Sep 28–29 | 1,200 LV | 45–46 | R +1.0 | −0.4 | 9% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Sep 23–25 | 1,087 LV | 42–43 | R +1.0 | −1.7 | 1% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | Sep 14 | 1,006 LV | 43–48 | R +5.0 | −0.6 | 1% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | Sep 8–9 | 1,200 LV | 43–45 | R +2.0 | −0.4 | 1% |
| Abacus Data (R) | Aug 29 | 2,500 LV | 42–55 | R +13.0 | — | 1% |
| Abacus Data | Aug 26–28 | 500 RV | 48–47 | D +1.0 | — | <1% |
| Abacus Data | Aug 26–28 | 306 LV | 42–55 | R +13.0 | — | <1% |
| Abacus Data | Aug 26–28 | — | 42–55 | R +13.0 | — | <1% |
| Impact Research (D) | Aug 18–24 | 700 LV | 41–41 | Even | −0.2 | <1% |
| Impact Research (D) | Aug 14–22 | 900 LV | 42–39 | D +3.0 | −0.2 | <1% |
| Impact Research (D) | Jun 17–22 | 700 LV | 45–48 | R +3.0 | −0.2 | <1% |
| Impact Research (D) | Feb 25–Mar 1 | 700 LV | 42–47 | R +5.0 | −0.2 | 0% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Nov 21–22 | 704 V | 36–42 | R +6.0 | +0.2 | 0% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.