2026 Senate forecastThe Upper Chamber by Son Ha

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TX · Senate 2026 · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET

Texas

Rated Lean D

James Talarico wins this seat in 62 in 100 simulations. Call it could easily go either way.

  • Portrait of James TalaricoJames TalaricoD62 in 100
  • Portrait of Ken PaxtonKen PaxtonR38 in 100

The race

What this race is about

The numbers on this page come from the model. This section doesn't. It's a short briefing on the contest itself: who is running, what they are arguing about, and where each side's strength lies.

The matchup

State Rep. James Talarico faces Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton got here by taking out a 24-year incumbent: he forced Sen. John Cornyn into a May 26 runoff and won it by roughly 27 points after Trump endorsed him in the final week. Talarico, a 37-year-old former middle school teacher and seminary graduate from the Austin area, won his March primary outright over Rep. Jasmine Crockett.

The issues

Cost of living leads, a sharp turn from the culture-war cycle of 2024. Both campaigns rolled out economic plans in August: Talarico on child care, medical debt, and the minimum wage, Paxton on a large tax deduction for medical expenses. Paxton's baggage is the other pillar of the race. His 2023 impeachment (he was acquitted), his old securities-fraud case, and a public divorce filed on grounds of adultery all feature heavily in Democratic ads.

Who has the edge, and where

Most July and August polls put Talarico ahead by 2 to 5 points, with one outlier showing Paxton up 1. The money is lopsided: about $72 million raised for Talarico against under $17 million for Paxton, and Talarico has had the airwaves nearly to himself. Cook moved the race to Toss-up on August 20. History is Paxton's best asset. No Democrat has won a Texas Senate race since 1988.

The environment

A midterm under an unpopular president of the incumbent party is exactly when a red state gets loose. Democrats lead the generic ballot by mid single digits and Trump's approval sits in the high 30s. Texas is competitive mostly because the GOP nominated its most scandal-worn statewide figure into that wind.

Written by hand, not by the model. As of August 27, 2026.

Over time

How the forecast has moved

0255075100AprJulOctJan ’26AprJulOctD 62 in 100R 38 in 100Oct 28, 2026
Chance in 100 the seat goes to each side: blue for the Democratic caucus, red for the Republicans · one point per day · hover or tap to read the lines

The margin

How close it lands

Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.

EvenD +2.1
← Ken Paxton aheadJames Talarico ahead →
Where the simulated margins land · marker at the average margin

Under the hood

What's driving the number

The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.

  • Partisan leanR +11.7
  • IncumbencyEven
  • National environmentD +4.7
  • FundraisingD +1.2
  • Fundamentals sayR +5.8
  • The polls sayD +2.7
  • Blended forecast marginD +2.1

The blend puts 93 percent of its weight on the polls and 7 percent on the fundamentals; polls take over as more arrive and election day nears.

The field

How other forecasters see this race

Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.

  • James Talarico winsThis forecast62 in 100
  • James Talarico winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2761 in 100

No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.

The markets

What the betting markets say

Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if James Talarico wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.

  • James Talarico winsThis forecast62 in 100
  • James Talarico winsKalshi66 in 100
  • James Talarico winsPolymarket68 in 100

Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET

The evidence

The polls, as the model sees them

Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.

PollDatesSampleD–RMarginHouse adj.Weight
Univision / YouGovOct 13–211,000 RV50–45D +5.0+0.15%
Rasmussen ReportsOct 20–21965 LV45–45Even−0.66%
ActiVoteOct 17–21400 LV51–49D +2.0+0.14%
Verasight/VoteHubOct 1–20517 RV43–41D +2.0—2%
Verasight/VoteHubOct 1–20509 LV46–41D +5.0—1%
Emerson CollegeOct 17–191,000 LV48–46D +2.0+0.910%
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)Oct 15–192,011 RV52–46D +6.0+1.111%
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)Oct 15–191,398 LV49–49Even+1.15%
Pollfinity ResearchOct 15–18278 RV48–43D +5.0+0.12%
Texas Public Opinion Research (D)Oct 15–18969 LV51–47D +4.0+0.15%
CBS News / YouGovOct 8–161,492 LV51–49D +2.0−0.14%
University of HoustonOct 10–142,000 LV48–46D +2.0−0.15%
InsiderAdvantageOct 13–141,200 LV48–49R +1.0−0.46%
ActiVoteSep 30–Oct 14400 LV52–48D +4.0+0.1<1%
GS Strategy Group (R)/ New River Strategies (D)Oct 9–13934 LV49–44D +5.0+0.23%
Marist UniversityOct 8–111,196 RV48–44D +4.0+0.93%
Marist UniversityOct 8–11—47–45D +2.0+0.9<1%
Quantus InsightsOct 9–11854 LV47–47Even−0.43%
ReconMR/ Siena UniversityOct 5–8617 LV48–44D +4.0—2%
Trafalgar Group (R)Oct 6–81,086 LV47–44D +3.0−1.71%
University of Texas /Texas Politics ProjectSep 25–Oct 5861 LV50–47D +3.0—1%
YouGovSep 28–Oct 53,625 LV50–44D +6.0+1.56%
New York Times / Siena UniversitySep 21–30615 LV51–45D +6.0—<1%
Rasmussen ReportsSep 28–291,128 LV46–45D +1.0−0.6<1%
UMass Lowell / YouGovSep 18–28850 LV45–45Even—<1%
Guidant Polling & Strategy (R)Sep 20–28800 LV47–44D +3.0—<1%
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)Sep 24–281,203 RV53–46D +7.0+1.1<1%
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)Sep 24–28881 LV51–49D +2.0+1.1<1%
Pulse Decision Science (R)Sep 24–27800 LV45–48R +3.0−0.11%
Big DataSep 24–26793 RV44–39D +5.0—<1%
Big DataSep 24–26698 LV45–42D +3.0—<1%
Big Data PollSep 24–26793 RV44–39D +5.0−0.3<1%
Big Data PollSep 24–26698 LV45–42D +3.0−0.3<1%
Stratus Intelligence (R)Sep 22–24856 LV48–48Even—<1%
Texas Public Opinion Research (D)Sep 19–221,007 LV49–44D +5.0+0.1<1%
Marist UniversitySep 17–201,139 RV50–44D +6.0+0.9<1%
Texas Southern UniversitySep 15–191,800 LV47–46D +1.0—<1%
Trafalgar Group (R)Sep 15–171,079 LV46–45D +1.0−1.7<1%
Emerson CollegeSep 12–141,000 LV47–46D +1.0+0.9<1%
SoCal StrategiesSep 12–13649 LV50–45D +5.0—<1%
ReconMR/ Siena UniversitySep 8–11614 LV49–43D +6.0—<1%
Mason-DixonSep 8–10625 LV46–43D +3.0−0.1<1%
InsiderAdvantageSep 8–91,200 LV47–46D +1.0−0.4<1%
Univision / YouGovAug 27–Sep 41,000 RV48–43D +5.0+0.1<1%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)Aug 30–Sep 1895 LV48–44D +4.0—<1%
Overton Insights (R)Aug 24–261,167 LV44–43D +1.0—<1%
Texas Public Opinion Research (D)Aug 21–241,000 LV48–42D +6.0+0.1<1%
University of Texas /Texas Politics ProjectAug 5–131,200 RV42–39D +3.0—<1%
Emerson CollegeAug 9–101,000 LV46–47R +1.0+0.9<1%
YouGov Blue (D)Jul 15–311,001 RV48–45D +3.0—<1%
Wedgewood PollsJul 30–31800 LV48–46D +2.0+0.1<1%
Texas Southern UniversityJul 27–301,200 LV47–45D +2.0—<1%
Texas A&M University /ReconMR/ Siena UniversityJul 27–30619 LV47–43D +4.0—<1%
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)Jul 23–271,005 RV51–48D +3.0+1.1<1%
Texas Public Opinion Research (D)Jul 15–171,048 LV45–40D +5.0+0.1<1%
A2 InsightsJun 23–28618 LV48–46D +2.0—<1%
New York Times / Siena UniversityJun 19–27656 LV47–47Even—<1%
SoCal Strategies (R)Jun 21800 LV47–49R +2.0—<1%
University of Texas /Texas Politics ProjectJun 5–121,200 RV42–43R +1.0—<1%
Texas A&M University /ReconMR/ Siena UniversityJun 1–4807 LV46–46Even—<1%
Quantus InsightsJun 3–4800 LV43–45R +2.0−0.4<1%
Texas Public Opinion Research (D)May 27–281,670 LV47–44D +3.0+0.1<1%
Public Policy Polling (D)May 22–23643 RV45–38D +7.0+0.2<1%
Texas Southern UniversityApr 22–May 61,223 LV45–45Even—<1%
University of Texas /Texas Politics ProjectApr 10–201,200 RV42–34D +8.0—<1%
Texas Public Opinion Research (D)Apr 17–201,018 LV46–41D +5.0+0.1<1%
Impact Research (D)Mar 12–17900 LV44–43D +1.0−0.2<1%
Public Policy Polling (D)Mar 4–5576 V47–45D +2.0+0.2<1%
University of Houston / YouGovJan 20–311,502 LV44–46R +2.0—0%
Emerson CollegeJan 10–121,165 RV46–46Even+0.90%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)Nov 12–171,000 LV44–44Even−0.30%
University of Houston / Texas Southern UniversitySep 19–Oct 11,650 RV46–49R +3.0—0%
UT TylerSep 17–241,032 RV37–38R +1.0—0%

How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.