VA · Senate 2026 · Updated Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
Virginia
Rated Solid D
Mark Warner wins this seat in 95 in 100 simulations. Call it all but certain.
Mark WarnerDIncumbent95 in 100
Bert MizusawaR5 in 100
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanD +6.9
- IncumbencyD +2.5
- National environmentD +5.1
- FundraisingD +1.5
- Fundamentals sayD +15.9
- Blended forecast marginD +16.0
With no usable polling, the forecast rests entirely on the fundamentals.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Mark Warner wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Mark Warner winsThis forecast95 in 100
- Mark Warner winsKalshi97 in 100
- Mark Warner winsPolymarket95 in 100
Market prices as of Aug 27, 2026, 2:03 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Jun 12–16 | 996 LV | 51–33 | D +18.0 | — | 95% |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/ Virginia Project (R) | May 1–5 | 1,047 LV | 55–29 | D +26.0 | — | 5% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.