VA · Senate 2026 · Updated Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
Virginia
Rated Likely D
Mark Warner wins this seat in 95 in 100 simulations. Call it all but certain.
Mark WarnerDIncumbent95 in 100
Bert MizusawaR5 in 100
Over time
How the forecast has moved
The margin
How close it lands
Each simulation produces a final margin. The curve shows where those margins fall; the tinted areas on either side of even are the futures each party wins.
Under the hood
What's driving the number
The forecast blends a weighted poll average with a fundamentals model: the state's partisan lean, incumbency, the national environment, and fundraising. Positive points favor the Democratic side of the margin; negative favor the Republican side.
- Partisan leanD +6.9
- IncumbencyD +2.5
- National environmentD +4.7
- FundraisingD +1.5
- Fundamentals sayD +15.5
- Blended forecast marginD +15.5
With no usable polling, the forecast rests entirely on the fundamentals.
The field
How other forecasters see this race
Ours isn't the only model on this race. Where another forecaster publishes a number — or we've copied one in by hand from a paywalled model — it appears here beside ours, dated, because models update on their own schedules. Forecasts disagree for knowable reasons: different poll filters, different weights on the fundamentals, different priors.
- Mark Warner winsThis forecast95 in 100
- Mark Warner winsRametta & Hare · as of Oct 2797 in 100
No model is "right" before the votes are counted. How our number is made — and how it scored against 2012–2024 races — is on the methodology page.
The markets
What the betting markets say
Prediction markets put a price on this seat too: what people are paying for a contract that pays out if Mark Warner wins, read as an implied probability. Shown for comparison only. This is not betting advice, and market prices never feed the model.
- Mark Warner winsThis forecast95 in 100
- Mark Warner winsKalshi98 in 100
- Mark Warner winsPolymarket98 in 100
Market prices as of Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET
The evidence
The polls, as the model sees them
Every public poll of this race, with the weight the model gave it in the latest run. Weights reward recency, sample size, and pollster track record; the house adjustment corrects each pollster's habitual lean before averaging.
| Poll | Dates | Sample | D–R | Margin | House adj. | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Jun 12–16 | 996 LV | 51–33 | D +18.0 | — | 95% |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/ Virginia Project (R) | May 1–5 | 1,047 LV | 55–29 | D +26.0 | — | 5% |
How the weights, the blend, and the simulation work is spelled out on the methodology page.