The archive
What changed
Every published run is archived. When the forecast actually moves (the chamber odds shift, a rating flips, a race drifts, new polls land), it's noted here in plain language. Runs where nothing meaningful happened keep quiet, and that's most of them.
Oct 28, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
Democrats' chance of Senate control fell to 60 in 100
Down from 61 in 100 in the previous run.
Oct 27, 2026, 8:00 p.m. ET
A new poll in Florida (special)
ActiVote (Oct 17–27): Ashley Moody 53, Angie Nixon 47.
Oct 27, 2026, 2:00 p.m. ET
Democrats' chance of Senate control rose to 61 in 100
Up from 60 in 100 in the previous run.
Georgia shifts toward Democrats
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 88 to 91 in 100.
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 64 to 67 in 100.
A new poll in Florida (special)
Echelon Insights (R) (Oct 16–23): Ashley Moody 51, Angie Nixon 43.
Echelon Insights (R) (Oct 16–23): Jon Ossoff 55, Mike Collins 40.
Echelon Insights (R) (Oct 16–23): Josh Turek 45, Ashley Hinson 43.
Echelon Insights (R) (Oct 16–23): Troy Jackson 51, Susan Collins 44.
Echelon Insights (R) (Oct 16–23): Pete Ricketts 47, Dan Osborn 46.
Echelon Insights (R) (Oct 16–23): Jon Husted 47, Sherrod Brown 47.
Univision / YouGov (Oct 13–21): James Talarico 50, Ken Paxton 45.
Oct 27, 2026, 8:00 a.m. ET
Michigan State University / YouGov (Oct 2–19): Abdul El-Sayed 48, Mike Rogers 44.
Michigan State University / YouGov (Oct 2–19): Abdul El-Sayed 44, Mike Rogers 39.
Glengariff Group (Oct 19–22): Abdul El-Sayed 51, Mike Rogers 45.
Quantus Insights (R) (Oct 24–25): Roy Cooper 52, Michael Whatley 43.
Quantus Insights (R) (Oct 24–25): Roy Cooper 54, Michael Whatley 45.
Marist University (Oct 22–25): Troy Jackson 49, Susan Collins 47.
Targoz Media Research (Oct 16–25): Darline Graham 47, Annie Andrews 46.
Oct 27, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 62 to 65 in 100.
Rasmussen Reports (R) (Oct 2–4): Chris Pappas 49, John E. Sununu 44.
Rasmussen Reports (R) (Oct 20–23): Chris Pappas 50, John E. Sununu 44.
Marist University (Oct 22–25): Troy Jackson 53, Susan Collins 47.
RedBox Research (D) (Oct 20–23): Sherrod Brown 47, Jon Husted 44.
Oct 26, 2026, 8:00 p.m. ET
RedBox Research (D) (Oct 20–23): Roger Marshall 46, Adam Hamilton 45.
Oct 26, 2026, 2:00 p.m. ET
A new poll in Florida (special)
RedBox Research (Oct 20–23): Ashley Moody 50, Angie Nixon 43.
Oct 26, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
RedBox Research (Oct 20–23): Abdul El-Sayed 49, Mike Rogers 44.
Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 p.m. ET
Democrats' chance of Senate control rose to 60 in 100
Up from 59 in 100 in the previous run.
Nebraska shifts toward Democrats
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 35 to 40 in 100.
Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) (Oct 15–18): Dan Osborn 48, Pete Ricketts 41.
Oct 25, 2026, 2:00 p.m. ET
Trafalgar Group (R) (Oct 21–23): Susan Collins 47, Troy Jackson 47.
Oct 24, 2026, 8:01 p.m. ET
Idaho moves from Solid R to Likely R
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 3 to 6 in 100.
VoteNexus Research (Oct 21–22): Jim Risch 49, Todd Achilles 43.
Oct 24, 2026, 2:00 p.m. ET
Harper Polling (R) (Oct 18–20): Roy Cooper 52, Michael Whatley 42.
Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 a.m. ET
InsiderAdvantage (R) (Oct 21–22): Abdul El-Sayed 47, Mike Rogers 46.
Oct 24, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET
Mississippi moves from Solid R to Likely R
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 2 to 8 in 100.
Nebraska shifts toward Democrats
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 32 to 35 in 100.
Change Research (D) (Oct 21–22): Cindy Hyde-Smith 43, Scott Colom 40.
GBAO (D) (Oct 18–22): Dan Osborn 46, Pete Ricketts 45.
Oct 23, 2026, 8:00 p.m. ET
Texas Public Opinion Research (D) (Oct 15–18): James Talarico 51, Ken Paxton 47.
Pollfinity Research (Oct 15–18): James Talarico 48, Ken Paxton 43.
Rasmussen Reports (Oct 20–21): James Talarico 45, Ken Paxton 45.
InsiderAdvantage (R) (Oct 21–22): Ashley Hinson 47, Josh Turek 45.
Oct 23, 2026, 2:00 p.m. ET
South Carolina shifts toward Democrats
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 27 to 32 in 100.
Verasight/VoteHub (Oct 1–20): Sherrod Brown 45, Jon Husted 41.
InsiderAdvantage (R) (Oct 21–22): Sherrod Brown 47, Jon Husted 44.
Verasight/VoteHub (Oct 1–20): James Talarico 46, Ken Paxton 41.
Verasight/VoteHub (Oct 1–20): James Talarico 43, Ken Paxton 41.
Impact Research (D) (Oct 14–20): Pete Ricketts 49, Dan Osborn 47.
Impact Research (D) (Oct 15–21): Annie Andrews 45, Darline Graham 44.
Oct 23, 2026, 8:00 a.m. ET
Democrats' chance of Senate control rose to 59 in 100
Up from 58 in 100 in the previous run.
National Public Affairs (R) (Oct 15–18): Pete Ricketts 50, Dan Osborn 47.
Harper Polling (R) (Sep 18–20): Roy Cooper 49, Michael Whatley 39.
Oct 23, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
Democrats' chance of Senate control fell to 58 in 100
Down from 59 in 100 in the previous run.
Cygnal (R) (Oct 16–17): Barry Moore 50, Everett Wess 35.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (Oct 12–14): Mike Rounds 56, Brian Bengs 37.
Oct 22, 2026, 8:00 p.m. ET
Maine shifts toward Republicans
Democrats' chance of the seat fell from 67 to 61 in 100.
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) (Oct 16–20): Susan Collins 49, Troy Jackson 49.
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) (Oct 16–20): Troy Jackson 50, Susan Collins 48.
Saint Anselm College (Oct 19–20): Chris Pappas 50, John E. Sununu 43.
Versalight/VoteHub (Oct 1–20): Sherrod Brown 45, Jon Husted 41.
Emerson College (Oct 19–20): Mike Rounds 50, Brian Bengs 42.
Oct 22, 2026, 8:00 a.m. ET
Democrats' chance of Senate control fell to 59 in 100
Down from 60 in 100 in the previous run.
South Dakota moves from Likely R to Solid R
Democrats' chance of the seat fell from 6 to 2 in 100.
Emerson College (Oct 17–19): James Talarico 48, Ken Paxton 46.
ActiVote (Oct 17–21): James Talarico 51, Ken Paxton 49.
Quantus Insights (R) (Oct 17–19): Mike Rounds 59, Brian Bengs 37.
Oct 22, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
A new poll in Florida (special)
co/efficient (R) (Oct 18–20): Ashley Moody 48, Angie Nixon 40.
University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs (Oct 7–15): Jon Ossoff 48, Mike Collins 40.
Oct 21, 2026, 8:00 p.m. ET
Democrats' chance of Senate control rose to 60 in 100
Up from 59 in 100 in the previous run.
Texas moves from Toss-up to Lean D
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 59 to 61 in 100.
Ohio (special) shifts toward Democrats
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 61 to 67 in 100.
GS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies (D) (Oct 9–13): Sherrod Brown 49, Jon Husted 43.
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) (Oct 15–19): Sherrod Brown 53, Jon Husted 46.
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) (Oct 15–19): Sherrod Brown 52, Jon Husted 47.
GS Strategy Group (R)/ New River Strategies (D) (Oct 9–13): James Talarico 49, Ken Paxton 44.
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) (Oct 15–19): James Talarico 49, Ken Paxton 49.
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) (Oct 15–19): James Talarico 52, Ken Paxton 46.
GS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies (D) (Oct 9–13): Josh Turek 46, Ashley Hinson 44.
Oct 21, 2026, 2:00 p.m. ET
A new poll in Florida (special)
University of North Florida (Oct 12–19): Ashley Moody 49, Angie Nixon 45.
Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Oct 7–15): Jon Ossoff 48, Mike Collins 40.
Oct 21, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
South Dakota shifts toward Republicans
Democrats' chance of the seat fell from 14 to 6 in 100.
Montana shifts toward Republicans
Democrats' chance of the seat fell from 6 to 2 in 100.
Marist University (Oct 15–18): Abdul El-Sayed 50, Mike Rogers 48.
Marist University (Oct 15–18): Abdul El-Sayed 52, Mike Rogers 45.
Elon University / YouGov (Sep 29 – Oct 8): Roy Cooper 52, Michael Whatley 39.
ActiVote (Oct 8–20): Roy Cooper 57, Michael Whatley 43.
ActiVote (Oct 6–20): Jon Ossoff 54, Mike Collins 46.
ActiVote (Sep 26 – Oct 20): Juliana Stratton 58.5, Don Tracy 41.5.
Quantus Insights (R) (Oct 15–18): Kurt Alme 47, Seth Bodnar 31.
Public Opinon Strategies (R) (Oct 12–16): Mike Rounds 54, Brian Bengs 37.
Oct 20, 2026, 8:01 p.m. ET
Data for Progress (D) (Oct 8–16): Mary Peltola 47, Dan Sullivan 44.
Data for Progress (D) (Oct 8–16): Mary Peltola 49, Dan Sullivan 46.
Data for Progress (D) (Oct 8–16): Mary Peltola 51, Dan Sullivan 49.
Data for Progress (D) (Oct 8–16): Dan Sullivan 50, Mary Peltola 50.
Oct 20, 2026, 2:01 p.m. ET
The Alabama Poll (Oct 15–16): Barry Moore 56, Everett Wess 35.
Suffolk University (Oct 14–18): Ed Markey 60, John Deaton 32.
Embold Research (Oct 5–8): Jack Reed 55, Raymond McKay 32.
Oct 20, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
Ohio (special) moves from Toss-up to Lean D
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 57 to 62 in 100.
Marist University (Oct 15–18): Sherrod Brown 48, Jon Husted 44.
Marist University (Oct 15–18): Sherrod Brown 51, Jon Husted 42.
co/efficient (R) (Oct 15–19): Ashley Hinson 48, Josh Turek 45.
Oct 19, 2026, 8:01 p.m. ET
South Carolina shifts toward Democrats
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 21 to 29 in 100.
Ohio (special) shifts toward Republicans
Democrats' chance of the seat fell from 60 to 57 in 100.
Quantus Insights (R) (Oct 15–17): Jon Ossoff 54, Mike Collins 46.
Rasmussen Reports (R) (Oct 12–14): Jon Husted 49, Sherrod Brown 47.
onpointpolitics [1] (Oct 18–19): Annie Andrews 45, Darline Graham 42.
Oct 19, 2026, 2:01 p.m. ET
A new poll in Florida (special)
Univision / YouGov (Oct 2–15): Ashley Moody 51, Angie Nixon 42.
Quantus Insights (Oct 15–17): Jon Ossoff 52, Mike Collins 45.
NPA Polling (Oct 8–12): Ashley Hinson 48, Josh Turek 47.
UMass Amherst / YouGov (Oct 5–12): Ed Markey 54, John Deaton 28.
University of Houston (Oct 10–14): James Talarico 48, Ken Paxton 46.
Oct 19, 2026, 2:01 a.m. ET
South Carolina moves from Likely R to Lean R
Democrats' chance of the seat rose from 18 to 21 in 100.
Ohio (special) moves from Lean D to Toss-up
Democrats' chance of the seat fell from 60 to 60 in 100.
Texas moves from Lean D to Toss-up
Democrats' chance of the seat fell from 60 to 60 in 100.
Trafalgar Group (R) (Oct 16–18): Darline Graham 49, Annie Andrews 46.