35 seats up · Election day Nov 3, 2026 · 6 days out

A friendly map may not be enough for Republicans to hold the Senate

Last updated on October 28, 2026

Every six hours, this model runs the 2026 midterms ten thousand times and counts who wins. It works from public polls and fundamentals, not vibes. Every race is on the map below, and each one has a page of its own.

Each square is one of 100 evenly weighted futures. In 60 of them Democrats control the chamber; in the other 40 Republicans hold it. A forecast like this is supposed to be wrong sometimes. The promise is only that its 60s come true about 60 percent of the time, no more and no less.

The lay of the land

What's at stake this November

Thirty-five of the Senate's 100 seats are on the ballot this year. Most belong to the class last elected in 2020, and two are special elections in Ohio and Florida to finish unexpired terms. Republicans are defending 22 of those seats and Democrats are defending 13.

Republicans go in with a 53 to 47 majority, counting independents with the party they caucus with. The 65 seats not up this year split 34 for the Democratic caucus and 31 for Republicans. That means Democrats have to win 17 of the 35 races on the ballot, while Republicans only need 19. The two targets are different because a 50-50 chamber goes to the Republicans, whose vice president casts the tiebreaking vote. Fifty seats keep the Senate Republican. Democrats need 51, a net gain of four seats without losing any of their own.

The range of outcomes

How many seats each side ends up with

The most common single outcome is a chamber with 52 seats caucusing with Democrats, which happens in 11 of 100 simulations. A result of 51 seats or more is a Democratic majority, and anything below that leaves Republicans in control.

Democratic-caucus seats after election day · chance in 100 simulations · latest run of 10,000

The battleground

All 35 races, state by state

Colors follow the model's rating for each seat. Tap, click, or tab your way to a state for the candidates, the current number, and how it has moved. The equal-states view gives every race the same size, so Rhode Island is exactly as easy to hit as Texas.