The report card
How the forecast did
No races have been called yet. As results come in, this page grades the frozen final forecast against them, race by race, and against the betting markets.
Race by race
All 35 races
| Race | Final forecast | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan 56 in 100 | — | — |
| Alabama | Barry Moore >99 in 100 | — | — |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton >99 in 100 | — | — |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper 98 in 100 | — | — |
| Delaware | Chris Coons >99 in 100 | — | — |
| Florida (special) | Ashley Moody 86 in 100 | — | — |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff 91 in 100 | — | — |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson 52 in 100 | — | — |
| Idaho | Jim Risch 94 in 100 | — | — |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton 97 in 100 | — | — |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall 64 in 100 | — | — |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr >99 in 100 | — | — |
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow 96 in 100 | — | — |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey >99 in 100 | — | — |
| Maine | Troy Jackson 67 in 100 | — | — |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed 70 in 100 | — | — |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan 84 in 100 | — | — |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith 93 in 100 | — | — |
| Montana | Kurt Alme 97 in 100 | — | — |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper 91 in 100 | — | — |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts 61 in 100 | — | — |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas 86 in 100 | — | — |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker 96 in 100 | — | — |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján 97 in 100 | — | — |
| Ohio (special) | Sherrod Brown 65 in 100 | — | — |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern >99 in 100 | — | — |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley 99 in 100 | — | — |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed >99 in 100 | — | — |
| South Carolina | Darline Graham 68 in 100 | — | — |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds 97 in 100 | — | — |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty >99 in 100 | — | — |
| Texas | James Talarico 62 in 100 | — | — |
| Virginia | Mark Warner 95 in 100 | — | — |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito 100 in 100 | — | — |
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman 100 in 100 | — | — |
The forecast froze at 6:00 a.m. Eastern on Election Day; every grade on this page is against that final snapshot. How the model works is on the methodology page. Results are entered manually as races are called and marked certified once states certify.